Iran: internal and external challenges

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Iran: internal and external challenges1The litany of challenges has been quite enormous but the character of challenges has perhaps changed over the years and what I mean by that is the current massing of troops in Iraq, in Afghanistan and the southern Russian republics. One also thinks of 150,000 troops from 50 countries sitting in Afghanistan to get rid of the taleban. So what is the strategy within the next two, three for four years? Perhaps those forces are there to mount an attack on Iran. And at the same time we have the internal challenges, the elections that have taken place, the issue of demonstrations and all kinds of messages on U-tube and all current communication methods which are giving a picture that something colossal is happening in Iran.
Mohammad Kammali: The topic is huge on Iran’s challenges internal and external. I would just like to have an interactive discussion. More to the point with the issue of challenges, internal and external I think the distinction is quite trite because Iran is facing challenges from outside its border and within.
Nevertheless the two cannot be seen in isolation because they  impact on each other. Anything that happens outside Iran has an impact inside the country and various events inside Iran have an impact on the international front as well. This could be positive or negative. So when, for example, you see threats of military attacks, sanctions, concern about Iran’s nuclear programme, or threats which have been more ongoing since Iran’s revolution in 1979 – these are all translated  in a way to events inside Iran which are not necessarily directly relevant.
So if for example the country is facing foreign threats of military intervention or sanctions you would see the country less confident internally and that would translate into less space for dissent, freedom of expression and that sort of thing.
The more upheaval you see internally, Iran in order to protect itself becomes more aggressive internationally. These threats go hand in hand and they cannot be seen in isolation even though there is this distinction.
The primary external challenge Iran is facing is the nuclear one. It is not a new issue but post 9/11 it has come into the headlines. The facts of the matter are quite clear in the reports that the director general of the International Atomic Energy Agency has been giving out following the inspections. Iran remains under the inspection of the IAEA. The main point of contention at the moment seems to be the enrichment  facilities in Iran. Iran is of course allowed to carry out enrichment of uranium but nevertheless it is an issue the West is worried about because this technology could be used further down the road to Iran becoming a nuclear power.
In the West’s opinion this impacts on the balance of power in the Middle East to the advantage of Iran and to the disadvantage of Israel and the WestIran: internal and external challenges4 in general.
The other issues are the occupation of Afghanistan and by extension the situation in Palestine. These have an impact on Iran. It shares thousands of miles of border with both Iraq and Afghanistan. It has cultural and religious ties with both countries. So what happens in these countries has an impact on Iran.
Iran had a situation of nearly going to war with the taleban before the American invasion  of  2002. Iran had a war with Iraq and that situation lasted quite a long time. Iran has a legitimate interest in the stability of these two countries and elsewhere in the neighbourhood as well.
Overall the external challenges are characterized by the fact that Iran is looking more eastwards now than it was before.  For the past 40 or 50 years it was looking westwards. As a result it does not give enough attention to its relationship with the West. With the US it’s a love-hate relationship. But with Europe because of its past history, it is not the kind of relationship where attempts are being made to make it more positive.
There are some attempts to actually break these existing ties and limit the current political relationship that exists. At the same time Iran is strengthening its relationship with the east – with China and Russia and various countries in the east. Iran sees itself in a position where it will benefit more if it aligns itself with those emerging countries especially in east Asia.
The US and Europe differ quite a lot because Iran believes that if has the US on its side or if it comes to the resolution of various matters it will automatically have Europe as well.
Iran: internal and external challenges5The internal challenges that Iran is facing can be characterized as economic and political. Politically the iconic feature is the election of June 2009 only seven months ago which on its own  was not that important. But it  revealed so much about Iran’s political scene and society in so little time  that it was really inconceivable. There were so many factions within Iran that  came together before the election which was expected to  improve relations between the various groups but post election the situation changed completely.
So nevertheless the issue of elections is continuing and it has not ended. We have not witnessed many  street protests but the issue of political prisoners, free expression in terms of press and the media, the fact that there is no independent media within Iran has exacerbated the problem.
When we get to the political issues the main issue that was brought to the front after the elections is that there seems to be an inherent problem in the way the power is shared in  Iran or if it shared at all. The elections brought this to light. This again goes back to  what I initially suggested  –  that events outside Iran have an impact on events inside Iran. So threats by the US, threats by Israel, every once in a while confirmation that the US is supporting the opposition movements against Iran or the fact that they are setting aside budgets for groups trying to topple the Islamic republic have an impact on the way the security apparatus views opposition and anyone who criticizes the government.
So there is a distinction made as a result of some form of paranoia or suspicion  that this distinction does exist between criticism of the government and covert operations to bring down the regime. The fact that this distinction does not exist is a problem that Iran has been trying to deal with.  After the elections it became apparent that this situation could not go on for much longer.
Other issues. Things are obviously changing. This is not a flat scene. There have been ups and downs. Sometimes the situation has looked better  but now things can still have an opportunity to improve because the two sides, the reformers and ruling conservatives, are beginning to come to their senses. More centrist  figures are coming to the fore and there may be some opportunity for the improvement of relations between the two sides.
The main problem is that the two sides see this as a zero sum gain: you either win or you lose. There is no effective power sharing and no one is prepared to compromise. So on the one hand you have the reformers accusing the government of rigging the elections.  On the other hand you have the government accusing the reformers of being a fifth column supported by the West. This vicious circle has gone on for a long time, for the past ten or 15 years. So the elections have brought this issue to the front line and this is why it is currently debated.
The other problems are economic. Iran faces severe economic problems such as inflation and  high rates of unemployment despite the fact that the country enjoys huge supplies of natural resources both oil and gas. The criticism that is directed at the government is its  handling of the vast amounts of revenue that it generates. The overall revenue of the government was unprecedented and the way this was managed, or mismanaged was a source of criticism for this government.
Iran is trying to deal with all these different issues but you cannot deal with these issues effectively unless you take on board constructive criticism and allow various political parties to operate and freely express themselves. As soon as this happens Iran will be able to improve its situation.
Mustafa G. Abbas:  To start I would like to congratulate the Iranian people on the 31st anniversary of their revolution. Many people thought in 1979 that it would not last a few months but thank God we are celebrating the 31st anniversary. It is a great achievement and challenge. I think and I am absolutely certain  that every hour there  has been a plot against Iran from the American institutions, to the CIA to the Pentagon, to the researchers. Every single hour they are planning something to weaken the revolution to get rid of the revolution.
That is a great challenge the Iranians are facing. The Americans and the Europeans are talking about fighting terrorism. They have admitted the responsibility for assassinating that scientist. I cannot understand what is going on. There is no logic to what they are talking about – fighting terrorism.
Iran: internal and external challenges13I think one of the greatest things about Imam Khomeini was that he  had both software and hardware. The software was his teaching and the hardware was his jihad and resistance against his enemies.  Iran is now also using both the software and the hardware.
So I will just summarise some of the challenges that Iran is facing. Number one is the nuclear energy. I remember I was in Paris and met the Imam.  A reporter asked him whether he would take Iran back to the dark ages. Imam Khomeini said I will answer your question after 25 years. You will see the answer to your question in 25 years time. After 25 years Iran is reaching the sky.  It is one of the leading countries in the world in terms of genetic engineering. That is the answer to that question. That is a great challenge that Iran is facing.
Middle East peace is one of the challenges. Without Iran there will be no peace in the Middle East.  International relations have to be based on moral values. Overcoming the sanctions, and backing the Muslim countries is another challenge. Regarding the media I think there are  160 radio and tv stations broadcasting against the regime.  Fifty seven million dollars a year from the American congress is given to opposition against the Iranian revolution.
So there are very many challenges which Iran is facing in the world and they are overcoming them. Unfortunately Iran does not have a strong media empire. They are facing that challenge also.
In Iran another challenge is employment because  most of the population is well educated. During the revolution there were less than 50,000 students in the university. Today 1,400,000 are attending. So there are a lot of educated people looking for jobs.
Iran is becoming self sufficient in agriculture, science and technology and arms for the military and this is also a challenge. One of the great challenges for Iran today is the law of subsidies passed in parliament. They want to remove this law and it has been there for about eight years between the various governments. Ahmedinjead has accepted the challenge of removing subsidies.
Dr Hindawi:  Congratulations to Iran for a successful revolution. I hope for 300 years. We may not be here but future generations will celebrate that great event in history.  As a member of the Muslim Brotherhood since 1951 and a member of the Islamic movement I really love the revolution for the reasons I am going to give.
I have seen ten or 15 revolutions before  the Iranian revolution and I don’t see  any good impact from anyone of them. I loved Imam Khomeini before he managed to do this revolution and I loved him after as well. Why?  Because I have seen most of the different leaders of the different revolutions, whether communist or socialist, or nationalist.  Some of them became thieves and some of them became dictators. Imam Khoemini did not change before the revolution or after the revolution.  His qualities were his bravery and justice but above all his simplicity. You can’t see a leader like that. He was  very simple. He was one of us. Other revolutionary councils and leaders were not the same. Read about them and see what they have done.
 In France the revolution started claiming fraternity, equality and freedom. Where is freedom now in the objectives of the Republic of France?
Some of the challenges. Although I love the revolution and the Islamic Republic of Iran  I have some fears. My points will highlight some of the challenges and some of my fears. My first point is the protection of the revolution, its principles, the achievement of its aims and their injection into the new generation. This revolution should not come to an end and there should be new aims, not only in Iran but throughout the Muslim world. This is not the export of the revolution.  The aim is to change the people into good people to understand and to appreciate.
The second point I would like to refer to is the  scientific and technological progress that has been achieved and  should not stop, especially for a Muslim country which believes in the Quran and the Sunnah. The Quran has a lot of scientific hints. I am sure one day if the Islamic Republic is going ahead in its programmes God will give them some keys of power that have not been given to any other power before them.
And then at that time they should show signs of how to use this power in an Islamic way. And this is one of the victories of Islam through the Islamic revolution. Will they use this power like America is using its power  or will there be other objectives to be realized in that great atmosphere and environment.
So the creation of an Islamic scientific and technological environment not only in Iran but in other places is one of the challenges facing the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Challenge number three is how to become the model state in  justice,  human rights  and  the use of human resources. For example I am worried now that some of the opposition who are in prison if  for any reason there are  some hints of injustice or they face some problems. I am sure that the leadership of the Islamic Republic of Iran are aware of that and they should give a good example in dealing with these opposition elements and in respecting them as good human beings and giving just punishment to those who have blackmailed the revolution or tried to destroy any of the its aims and  objectives in Iran.
We need an example of good trials and judges. We can  learn from the West in some cases. I hope that the West will also learn from the Islamic Republic of Iran. This is a  very important point protecting our dignity. Not only as Muslims but the honour and dignity of human beings. These aims and characteristics expressed properly in the Qur’an  and should be transformed into real existence – a  plausible thing that can be understood, practiced and seen in the real theatre of the Islamic Republic of Iran.
Number four: how to convince the new generations of the necessity of the revolution and to  detach them from the many trials exerted by the West, especially America and Israel and some Arab countries like Egypt and their neighbours in the Gulf to detach them from the poisonous way of dealing with the next generation whether through the media or through  other channels as well. How to keep  this generation in dreams of more progress and independent from other impacts coming from outside and to raise the standard of the public and protect them from the different trials coming either from the West or from the East.
Number five. How to cement relations with others whether Muslim countries or non Muslim countries  and go ahead. This means keeping your values and your advancement but at the same time maintaining  relations with others. I am sure that others are trying to sever and cut relations with the Islamic Republic of Iran but we should have not have any despair in this regard.
New generations in America can appreciate and understand and , we have many good friends in Western communities like George Galloway, Tony Benn and others who are here who here  and who went to Gaza.  One day they will go to Iran. We have Frank Gelli, Rodney Shakespeare. We have many good professors and thinkers in the West who are real friends of the Islamic Republic of Iran and support its values. We have to exert an effort in that field in the West. How to break the ice in relations between Iran and other countries even in the United Nations, even in the Security Council.
The balance should be changing in future and last year I proposed a new world order: Iran, Venezuela, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Islamic movement and all of you should be there. We are in need of a new world order and that will not happen without the assistance of Iran and its values and people who can defend these values and defend the siege.
Allah is informing us in the Qur’an. If mercy was in the hands of human beings they would never give it to anyone. But Muslims, in sha Allah, will provide a good example in that regard.
Afshin Rattansi:  The last time I had to speak about Iran I was in front of a whole group of Western journalists on a panel of four people. I think they wanted to throw me out of the window. There is a great deal of interest in Iran in the Western media. I don’t think it was like that four years ago. I think they were interested in another country – Iraq. I had expected a few more journalists here.
I say to journalists  who were attacking me and anyone who has been talking like some of the people on this platform when it comes to Iran. I joked at first  about my knowledge of Iran to some Iranian friends and colleagues who take a very different tack. I lived there for a year and bit so I am not a great expert on Iran. I joked that I would just say where it is.
And I think where it is,  is the whole point of Iran rather than its resources. The geographical context has been entirely missing from media representations of what has been happening in Iran.
I also worked for Sheikh Al Makhtoum in Dubai. He asked why the Americans were always telling him to get upset about the three islands dispute – the three islands between Iran and the UAE.
He knew like so many Persian Gulf rulers know they were trying to create trouble. There is nothing like a colonial power trying to create trouble in that region. The geographical context is not available in the Western media. Even though it is available in atlases it is not available to journalists. We are in London so I am sure we are all enjoying the Chicot inquiry which is supposed to analyse Britain’s role in the war on Iraq. Anyone who thinks about conspiracy theories suffers a lot when it comes to the war on Iraq. The war on Iraq  has greatly increased the regional influence of  Iran over the entire region.
In Iraq poor President Obama  was reading about the Bush surge which so many commentators believed was the reason for the decrease in violence in Iraq. Well I think the best analysts realized it was people like Moqtada Al Sadr should take a lot of the credit for the decrease in violence in Iraq. The old communist regions of the urban poor in Iraq moved over to extended  Iranian influence under Moqtada.
I guess the State Department doesn’t realize that. They think it is the American troops in Iraq who should be added. This is relevant to any discussion about external pressure on Iran. The contracts for the Exon oil company were signed in the past week.
We know that Iran has influence over Iraq on the eastern side. We have a conference here on Afghanistan starting tomorrow. The president of Afghanistan arrived just a few hours ago in the city. I was in Tehran working for press tv now an independent production company. We supplied programmes to  broadcasters such as press tv. I was banned from this conference tomorrow. I will be broadcasting outside it. I did make a point to the foreign office that Iran does border with Afghanistan unlike the United Kingdom but it didn’t seem to hold must sway.
Ayatollah Khatami famously sent a fax to George W Bush after 9/11 trying to arrange some sort of deal in the fight against the taleban. The offer was famously rebuffed but Iran’s influence over alliances with the northern alliance had a big part to play in the victory over the taleban, the spawn of United States influence in Soviet Afghanistan.
It is interesting the taleban is now being paid with US tax payers money. We don’t know who is backing Al Qaeda in Iraq or  Al Qaeda in Afghanistan. I don’t think its Iran is backing Al Qaeda in any of these countries.
Let us go a little further south down the border with Iran we have Pakistan. I forgot to mention the surge of course. Obama escalating the war with 30,000 troops. Then we have the drone attacks that are killing so many civilians every day. There is no reporting of that. It is  great recruiting agent for Salafaist groups and is further destabilizing a neighbor.
It is interesting what members of the panel here said about Iran making greater alliances with countries. I would say after living there a year I felt Iran wasn’t isolated at all. I was there when the Non Aligned Movement Conference was held in Iran.  I was speaking to the BBC’s correspondent who was there at the time. I don’t think he even knew that the Non Aligned Movement existed. One hundred and nineteen foreign ministers attended. There was no coverage in  any media on this massive turn out.
Just as the Western corporate media were talking about some sort of unimportant nuclear thing when it comes to the real dynamics of what is happening. I think some of us  know that the alliances with Latin America do frighten the West which is why we get pictures of President Ahmedinejad hugging Hugo Chavez. Those pictures certainly frighten the West and  frighten journalists who work in the Western corporate media.
A coup was attempted against Hugo Chavez under the Clinton administration. Under the Obama administration we have witnessed a coup in Honduras and I say that with a side bar. If anyone turns to the subject of democracy we have to ask did President Ahmedinejad win the Iranian election? Well its an open question. Did President Bush win the  victory against Al Gore that created so much trouble in the world?
Democracies are strange things – strange things on Iran’s borders, in Afghanistan, in Pakistan, in Iraq. I suppose another aspect of  this is has Iran declared war on any country? Those who are prone to be pro Ahmedinejad and pro Iran often point to the ancient civilization and how it must be a couple of millennia since it declared any aggression against any country.
And then people point to me and say what about Hamas, Hezbollah and the close ties. I think all of us realize that Hamas was democratically elected and without Hezbollah the war in Lebanon in 2006 might have ended very differently.
Iran is the most democratic country in that region if one  looks around at the Persian Gulf countries and the newly installed governments around the region since the expansionist of the  Bush administration policies after 9/11.
But I do think that thetr str  external pressures on Iran posed by the media,  and posed by journalists. Given that we had Prime Minister Tony Blair coming to the inquiry here in London the run-up to the war Iraq was very similar in terms of media reportage about Iraq. What frightens most people in the world, what frightens Americans, is any kind of aggression against Iran.
I should say as a side bar the president doesn’t have that much power under the constitutional arrangements of that country. He doesn’t have the kind of executive power that Tony Blair was able to wield in this country without any sort of cabinet decision and certainly not the kind of power that the  USA president has over the USA.
One must be very aware that different economic policies in Iran will change Iran and countries develop and let us just hope Iran develops without the help of the USA.
* Mohammad Kamaali is an Iran analyst and a founding member of the Campaign Against Sanctions and Military Intervention in Iran (CASMII) and currently serves on CASMII’s International Steering Committee. He is also a media commentator on Iran and the Middle East and has appeared on various outlets including BBC Television, BBC World Service, Aljazeera, France24, VOA, Sky News, Channel4, Fox News, Iran’s PressTV and the IRNN.
** Afshin Rattansi has for more than two decades worked in flagship broadcast and print media around the world. In the UK, he has worked at The Guardian, the New Statesman, for every regional and national outlet of the BBC and a host of award-winning Channel 4 production companies. In 1999, he helped to launch the developing world’s first global financial news and current affairs channel. He was one of the first english-language employees of Al Jazeera and worked at the Arab satellite station’s flagship programme, ‘Top Secret’ which uncovered the Al Qaida plot to attack Washington and New York in 2001. He has since worked for the UK’s top-rated breakfast television programme GMTV as well as CNN International. He was news editor for Bloomberg News and was based in Tehran for more than a year, helping to put its English-language TV service on the map. Afshin Rattansi has written six novels that have been represented by  A. P. Watt and Curtis Brown Literary Agencies. His quartet, "The Dream of the Decade – The London Novels" is published by Booksurge in the United States of America.
*** Mustafa G. Abbas is a researcher at the Kuwait Institute for Scientific Research. He has been active in the field of charity for the past three decades and has made frequent visit to many countries in relation to his work especially the Indian Subcontinent. He is a political analyst and often appears on TV screens for comments and analysis. He has followed the events in Iran since the Revolution and still takes close interest in its affairs. He has undertaken extensive research on

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