On the early of January 2015, the king was transferred to a military hospital after experiencing shortness of breath and back pain, and also reported he needed help to breathe through a tube. Indeed, Abdullah’s current condition had sparked speculation about the possibility of changing political power where it would determine the future of the House of Saud’s political legitimacy in the world’s most important oil supplier, Saudi Arabia. Although the 79 year-old Crown Prince Salman would be the successor, he is however believed to be suffering from Alzheimer’s Disease and may be incapable of assuming power. This signals a looming succession crisis among the princes – or rather, the political power struggles between the second and third generation princes.
The Saudi succession rules were first issued by King Fahd in 1992 under the Basic Law of Governance (al- nizam al- asasi lil hukm). This law was the first constitution-like document that functioned as a legal framework (rule) to elect the new successor for the Saudi monarchy. In addition, this law was made by King Fahd due to the growth of the ‘al- Sahwa al- Islamiyya’ movement after the US military presence on Saudi soil during the first Gulf War. Sahwa movements had made politico-religious demands as critics of the regime, although at the same time, its members were said to be supporters of regime’s theocratic elements where it obligated King Fahd to adopt the succession rules. According to 1992 Basic Law of Governance, Article 5(B) stated that “governance (the accession to the throne) shall be limited to the sons of the founder King Abdulaziz ibn Abd Ar- Rahman Al- Faysal As- Saud and the sons of his sons”. This law also awarded power to the king in choosing his heir apparent (the Crown Prince) by the royal order. The Allegiance Council of Law was established in 2006 by the royal degree by the incumbent ruler, King Abdullah. This law is another crucial legal framework for the question of succession. In case of the ruler (and the Crown Prince) being permanently incapable of exercising power, the member of the Allegiance Council will assume the administration for a temporary period and select the ‘new’ king from the male heirs (sons or grandsons) of King Abdul Aziz via collective votes. These laws indicated that not only will the few surviving sons of the founding king be eligible to take over the throne but also possibly that ‘third generation princes’ will be able to claim the right to be the ‘new’ ruler.
Perhaps the main question next to ‘who will be the next king to succeed Abdullah’, however, is of the power struggles among the two generation princes (second and third lines) imminently occurring and indicating the political power competition between the influential clans who are seeking to expand their influence in Saudi Arabia. The recent emergence of the ‘Sudairi clan’ where headed by the Crown Prince Salman and seen as political threats to the current ruler, King Abdullah, who is not a full brother of ‘Sudairi Seven’. The Sudairi Seven refers to seven sons of the founding king with his wife, Hassa bin Ahmed al- Sudairi and these are full brothers starting from King Fahd (died 2005), the late Corwn Prince Sultan (died 2011), Abdul Rahman, the late Crown Prince Nayef (died 2012), Turki, the current Crown Prince Salman and Prince Ahmed. Power struggles happen when the position of the second deputy remains vacant, indeed, it was clear that King Abdullah did not want someone from the Sudairi clan to be appointed as the next successor and he tried to keep control of the key posts within the state. On January 2013, Prince Muhammad bin Fahd (the eldest surviving of King Fahd) was removed from the governorship post of the oil- rich Eastern province because of his failure to halt Shiite protest movements. However, some analysts observed that it was a political game strategy by Abdullah to stay in power amid this political competition inside the House. Furthermore, the establishment of the Allegiance council is assumed as ‘brilliant step’ for Abdullah in building alliance of the royal family, including the marginalized wings against the Sudairi clan, indeed, the Council is headed by Abdullah’s closest ally, Prince Mishaal bin Abdulaziz. The political power battles possibly occurred among the third generation princes, for instance, Prince Mitab bin Abdullah (Abdullah’s son) currently holds the key post of National Guard Commander and rumors say that Abdullah and the current Crown Prince Deputy, Prince Muqrin bin Abdulaziz have made a deal, if Abdullah passes power to Muqrin and Mitab will be the Crown Prince. Besides many of Abdullah’s sons hold key posts within state, including governorship post and at the same time, Prince Salman’s sons also have risen in the highest ranks.
In conclusion, the Saudi succession crisis would lead to political instability in the country and this political power competition among the princes would undermine its monarchical legitimacy. Despite the internal disputes between the influential clans, the House of Saud could survive via oil money although with a lack of strong leadership. There is a high possibility that the third generation princes are the next line to succeed Abdullah because recently the Crown Prince Salman has had health problems and the appointment of Prince Muqrin to be the next ruler may face the maternal ancestry issue which probably could disqualify him from the throne. The power battles inside the House of Saud and disunity among the ‘young’ generation princes could weaken the Kingdom in tackling domestic issues, including the economy and sectarian divisions. Most important is how the succession crisis may affect the changes of oil policy where it currently causes an uncertain situation for the rest of the world, and the monarch’s capability in dealing with the regional security issues; the expansion of jihadist extremism and ‘regional threat’ from Iran.
