Future growth momentum is expected to be triggered by the non-oil sector even as the country faces external risks on possible recession in advanced economies and European sovereign debt spillovers.
Moreover, pressure on inflation, which reached a two-year high of 2.20% in September, were likely to moderate to 2%, while core inflation (excluding rentals, utility prices and food) would be higher at 4% this year, said the Qatar Economic Outlook 2011-12, released by GSDP secretary general Saleh al-Nabit in the presence of Ibrahim al-Ibrahim, economic adviser to HH the Emir, and Frank Harrigan, director, Department of Economic Development, GSDP.
The GSDP’s projected 15% growth in real gross domestic product (GDP) for this year is lower than the 18.7% estimated by the International Monetary Fund (IMF).
However, Qatar’s planning body said recalculating the IMF growth numbers using the UN system of national accounts would yield a forecast close to 15% for 2011.
The country was expected to make “formidable” fiscal and balance of payments surpluses in 2011 with real GDP growing at 15% and nominal GDP at 32.3% (considering higher oil prices and robust volume growth), it said, adding fiscal and current account surpluses were estimated at 12.6% and 23.6% of nominal GDP respectively.
The 32.3% growth in nominal GDP this year would imply slower second-half growth than the expansion of 34.8% reported by the Qatar Statistical Authority for the first half. As liquefied natural gas production was already at full capacity in March, volume expansion was forecast to slow in the second half, it said, adding oil prices had also come off their first-half peaks.
“Qatar, having successfully completed a two-decade long programme of hydrocarbon investments in 2011, will see its hydrocarbon output plateau and the impulse that the programme has given to growth in the past decade face,” the report said, adding significant new investments must await the results of a technical study on the North Field.
