Overall confidence has dipped by nine index points in the UAE, seven in Qatar and three points in Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, as compared to levels measured in January of this year. Of the surveyed North African countries, Egypt also noted a dip in confidence dropping 8 points, while Algeria witnessed a marked improvement, moving up two points.
The results form part of the Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) – a measure of consumer expectations and satisfaction of various elements of the economy including inflation, job opportunities and cost of living.
One aspect of determining the CCI is to assess whether respondents’ current financial position is perceived to be better – or worse – than the previous year. The research reveals that 34 per cent of all respondents feel that they are in a better position than last year.
All respondents remain optimistic that their country’s economy would be better in a year’s time – with respondents in Oman and Bahrain at 48 per cent and 44 per cent, respectively, registering as the most optimistic. The drop from previous scores in terms of consumer expectations and optimism towards the future, however, was most notable in Qatar, the UAE and Egypt, dropping by 11 index points in Qatar and six points in the latter two.
As part of the index, the respondents were asked to rate how they found the current economic climate in terms of good, neutral or bad, for buying consumer goods. The conclusive results were largely negative – only 19 per cent of all correspondents cited it as a good time to buy and 38 per cent consider it bad. The majority of Bahrain’s respondents at 46 per cent felt it was a largely neutral time to buy goods, compared to the 18 per cent that felt it was a good time and the 29 per cent who felt it was a bad time. Of the GCC countries, Qatar, KSA and the UAE matched the average in terms of whether it was a good time to buy.
The fact that Bahrainis are reluctant to spend could mean opportunities for marketers capitalising on the summer season, and consumer habits towards spending at this time. As consumers will be on the lookout for goods that are the best priced and that offer the most value, the brands that propose the most attractive promotions and discounts would stand to gain.
“Consumer opinion is one of the most powerful tools in reflecting prevailing attitudes and sentiments about the current business and economic conditions in a particular country. By monitoring this data, all types of industry and professional personnel can learn and benefit from the sound insights, by using them to forecast and understand key trends and improve and develop business activities correspondingly in the future,” said Bayt.com’s CEO, Rabea Ataya.
The consumer confidence index also seeks to measure the confidence of employees in their current work, and to measure their individual attitudes and satisfaction towards the local job market in general. In Bahrain, 46 per cent of respondents cited it as a good time to do business, while only 26 per cent cited it as a good time in terms of availability of jobs in Bahrain. Employee confidence recorded minor slumps in Qatar and KSA, while Kuwait and Algeria both registered an improvement with their indices moving up 5 points each. Qatar and Oman recorded the most positive attitudes towards current business conditions.
The research also indicates respondents’ satisfaction in terms of their work remuneration: only 19 per cent of all respondents cited that their salary had increased to keep pace with the cost of living, while an overwhelming 63 per ecnt stated that their remuneration had not kept up – this figure was 62 per cent in Bahrain, which compares with 66 per cent in KSA and 59 per cent in Qatar.
The most unsatisfied in this respect were respondents in the Levant countries of Jordan, Syria and Lebanon.
“On a universal level, dropping indices may not be a prediction of economic performance but it could well be a reflection of the far reaching effects of inflation. This could put pressure on premium brands as consumers seek out better value propositions. One of the potential trends that could emerge from sustained high levels of inflation could be the growth of price brands. Most developed nations are witnessing such a trend where consumers are looking for brands offering them better value for money,” said Nassim Ghrayeb, CEO, YouGovSiraj.
“On the employment front, the largest drops in terms of anticipated availability of jobs in a year’s time came from Qatar and the UAE, suggesting prevailing attitudes that jobs in the region are becoming harder to come by. Bahrain, however, recorded largely optimistic attitudes towards the availability of jobs in a year’s time, with 46 per cent predicting that more will be available, which contrasts with 36 per cent in Kuwait,” he added.
“Stakeholders in the HR industry and pan-regional recruitment websites like bayt.com can greatly benefit from data such as this, as it provides detailed insights into how the people of the region are really feeling about the situation in their country. Specifically, this timely and relevant data helps all involved in the recruitment industry understand how people are feeling about their jobs, career growth potential and salary levels, and offers a valuable driver for prompting positive change,” added Ataya.
The data for the May 2008 Consumer Confidence Index Survey was collected on-line between the period of April 7 and May 18, 2008 with 13,026 respondents across the UAE, KSA, Qatar, Oman, Kuwait, Bahrain, Syria, Jordan, Lebanon, Egypt, Morocco, Tunisia, Algeria and Pakistan. Males and females aged between 20 and 62, of all nationalities, were included in the survey. The survey and other Middle East Human Resources research is available on www.bayt.com.
