Iran has unleashed part of its long-range missile arsenal on Israel while holding back its most powerful weapons.
As Iranian missiles continue to hit Israeli territory in response to Tel Aviv’s expanding military campaign, Tehran has remained unusually silent about the types of missiles it is using. Unlike previous strikes in April and October, which were accompanied by official footage and technical details, the current wave of attacks has unfolded without such disclosures.
Still, Israeli military analysts say it is possible to identify some of the projectiles based on the damage they have caused. Tal Inbar, a senior researcher at the Missile Defence Advocacy Alliance, says Iran appears to be using several familiar ballistic missiles, including liquid-fuelled models like the Qadr and Emad, as well as the solid-fuelled Kheibar Shekan.
What has Iran used so far?
The Qadr and Emad missiles belong to the same family. Both have a range of up to 1,800 km and carry warheads weighing around 750 kg, though not all of that is explosive. The Emad is said to be more accurate than the Qadr. These missiles were seen in Iran’s “True Promise” attacks in 2023.
The Kheibar Shekan, a newer solid-fuel missile, has a shorter range of around 1,400–1,500 km, meaning it can only reach Israel if launched from western Iran. It carries a smaller warhead (500–600 kg) but offers higher accuracy and speed due to its propulsion type.
What hasn’t been used yet?
Iran has not yet used the Shahid-Haj Qassem, named after assassinated Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani. This solid-fuel missile is classified by Iran as hypersonic, claiming it re-enters the atmosphere at five times the speed of sound. Western analysts dispute this label due to its lack of three-dimensional manoeuvrability.
The Haj Qassem reportedly features electro-optical guidance and very high precision. According to Israeli researcher Yehoshua Kalisky, Iran may have launched at least one of these missiles on 15 June toward the cities of Bat Yam or Rehovot. One of the targets was allegedly the Weizmann Institute of Science.
Even more notably, Iran has so far held back what Israeli media refers to as its “Doomsday weapon” – the Khorramshahr, the most powerful missile in its arsenal. It can carry a warhead of up to 1,800 kg. Though unveiled in 2017, there is no record of it being used in any military operation to date.
What could a Khorramshahr missile do?
Tal Inbar says that if a Khorramshahr were to hit a main road or urban area, it could potentially flatten entire blocks of buildings on both sides of the street. Although Iran is thought to possess only dozens to a few hundred of these missiles, it holds thousands of older models like the Qadr and Emad.
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How many ballistic missiles does Iran have?
Estimates vary. According to Israeli military sources, Iran began this war with around 3,000 ballistic missiles. After launching 200 and losing others to Israeli airstrikes, the number was estimated to have dropped to 2,000. Kalisky adds that Iran fired around 100 missiles on one recent day alone, suggesting it could sustain a pace of 100 missiles per day for up to three weeks.
How much does the programme cost?
Precise figures are unknown, but ballistic missiles are expensive. Inbar estimates that a standard missile costs around $1 million. A missile like the Khorramshahr would cost significantly more, but Iran’s missile production is state-run and managed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which reduces manufacturing and labour costs.
Iran’s missile programme was originally built on North Korean designs. Though the two countries’ systems have diverged in recent years, many of Iran’s missiles, such as the Shahab-3, were adapted from North Korean models, which themselves were based on Soviet-era Scud missiles. The Khorramshahr is also believed to be derived from a distinct North Korean platform.
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How is Israel trying to counter it?
Israel has been targeting Iran’s ballistic missile infrastructure using both manned and unmanned airstrikes. It has also reportedly relied on Mossad-linked cells inside Iran to fire medium-range projectiles at launch sites during the early days of the war. Israeli strikes have hit missile bases, launch pads, factories, and production sites, including locations in Shiraz and Kermanshah.
Can Israel dismantle the programme?
Inbar is sceptical. Even if Israel were to destroy all of Iran’s launchers, warehouses, and missile factories, Iran remains a large industrial state with access to raw materials, technical know-how, and a long-term strategic mindset. He compares it to Iraq in 2003, where missile stocks were only dismantled after a full regime change. Without that, he says, any claim to erase Iran’s missile programme is “overly optimistic”.
