Israel’s plan to conquer Gaza City will lead to more atrocities against a starving population and pave the way to ethnically cleansing northern Gaza
The Israeli defence minister on Wednesday approved plans to conquer Gaza City, disregarding regional efforts to broker a ceasefire and hostage deal.
The Israeli military has now launched the first phase of the assault on Gaza’s largest urban centre, pounding neighbourhoods with airstrikes and artillery fire, and establishing a foothold on the outskirts of the city.
Thousands were driven from their homes in the days before the assault began, with more continuing to flee as military operations continue, being forcibly displaced to the south.
Israel is pressing ahead with its plan despite the fact that Hamas accepted a ceasefire and hostage release deal proposed by Arab mediators this week.
Although Netanyahu previously stated that Israel intended to capture the entire Gaza Strip, the current initiative focuses on Gaza City, which is deemed Hamas’s last major urban bastion.
The blueprint lists five goals for ending the war: the demilitarisation of Gaza, Israeli security control over the coastal strip, the release of all hostages, the disarmament of Hamas, and the establishment of an alternative civilian administration not linked to Hamas or the Palestinian Authority.
The five-point plan calls for Israeli forces to occupy the city, already shattered by nearly two years of relentless aggression and surrounded by areas under Israeli command or evacuation orders. The operation is considered the first step toward a wider seizure of the Palestinian territory.
Israel is preparing a two-phase offensive to capture Gaza’s biggest city. The cabinet’s decision grants Palestinians until the 7 October attack’s second anniversary to evacuate the area, after which the Israeli army will mount a siege and ground assault geared toward flushing out remaining Hamas operatives before advancing into the rest of Gaza.
Related
With Gaza starving and in ruins, Israel seeks total conquest
Giorgio Cafiero
The Israeli army says civilians would be relocated to “safe zones”, but areas designated as such have been repeatedly bombed during the war.
According to Israel’s plans, Gaza City’s civilians will receive tents and shelter before being displaced south from combat zones. But this cannot happen overnight.
“If they’re serious about it, it will take time, even months,” Gershon Baskin, former Israeli negotiator and co-director of the Alliance for Two States, told The New Arab. “Unless they do what they’ve done for the past 22 months: moving civilians without the necessary infrastructure.”
In an interview with TNA, Amjad Iraqi, a senior Israel/Palestine analyst at the International Crisis Group (ICG), asserted that the Israeli military would seek to exert extreme pressure through air power and evacuations.
He expects the Israeli army to move cautiously during the ground invasion, as Gaza City remains densely populated, Hamas maintains a strong presence there, and its tunnel network for smuggling and warfare is still operational.
“They may advance gradually, ‘salami slicing’, rather than heading straight into Gaza City’s centre,” the ICG’s specialist said, noting that the many moving parts make the operation complex and could potentially work against Israeli forces.
While Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu says he does not intend to permanently occupy Gaza, far-right cabinet members want the war to continue and re-establish Israeli settlements there, with long-term Israeli plans for the territory unclear.
The Israeli leader has been vague on who could run the war-torn enclave, alluding to “Arab forces”, although none have expressed a willingness to do so under Israeli occupation or after the entire territory has been destroyed.
In 22 months of military aggression, Netanyahu’s government has failed to free the captives and has not achieved its stated goal of eliminating Hamas, which retains command over a vast tunnel network.
Israel believes Hamas has 40,000 fighters in Gaza, with a substantial portion likely concentrated within Gaza City. Shaiel Ben-Ephraim, an international diplomacy expert specialising in the Arab-Israeli peace process, places the number in the city between 5,000 and 10,000.
Talking to TNA, the Israeli analyst observed that Hamas’ resistance would still mainly rely on tunnels, shafts, booby-traps, and sporadic anti-tank squads. Citing rumours from Israeli army sources and Hamas-linked Telegram channels, he said that the group may have more advanced plans to abduct Israeli soldiers isolated from their units.
Related
The Israeli resettlement of Gaza is no longer a fringe idea
Jessica Buxbaum
The commentator pointed out that Israel plans to deploy two or three divisions to Gaza City, which would leave Hamas completely outnumbered. He anticipated a “simple and brutal” operation, saying: “They’ll tell the population to leave, then carpet-bomb remaining structures, send in bulldozer teams to clear booby-traps, locate and destroy most Hamas positions.”
The escalation, which has drawn international condemnation, faces strong opposition within Israel, including from the families of the hostages and the Israeli military leadership. Last Sunday, close to half a million Israelis rallied nationwide against the occupation plan.
Opposition leader Yair Lapid called the decision to capture Gaza City a “disaster” that could take months, cost tens of billions to the Israeli taxpayers, endanger the captives, and lead to further soldier casualties. Israel’s army chief of staff, Eyal Zamir, also opposed the widened operation, warning it could result in more deaths of Israeli soldiers, risk the lives of the remaining hostages, and further damage Israel’s international standing.
For Baskin, the key question is whether the army’s chief of staff will follow every government decision, specifying that in Israel, the military has never refused orders, and it’s unlikely to do so. “The army doesn’t want to carry out the entire operation as decided by the government. We could possibly see them dragging their feet or implementing it slowly,” he said.
ICG’s Amjad Iraqi drew attention to the fact that Israeli military ranks are particularly concerned that a full-scale offensive would almost certainly amount to a war crime, as Gaza City allows extensive documentation. “They worry that, if this plan goes forward, the clear violations of international law could expose Israeli commanders, generals, and soldiers abroad,” he maintained.
In his view, a prolonged occupation of Gaza City would deepen rifts within Israel’s political and military circles and fuel opposition in Israeli society if ground troops suffer heavy casualties.
Annelle Sheline, a research fellow in the Middle East program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft, agreed, telling TNA that if the Israeli public had to bear a higher cost, that could trigger real pressure on the government to stop the fighting.
Still, the Middle East expert noted a shift as Israelis begin to pay the price of their country’s ongoing genocide in Gaza. “Over time, many Israelis will come to feel the cost of their stigma as a genocidal nation,” she suggested.
Iraqi said that while most Israelis support a ceasefire to end the war and free the hostages, that is not enough to mobilise society effectively to stop the genocide.
Ben-Ephraim said that the majority of Israelis rightly believe the prime minister is pursuing the war in Gaza for his own political survival, while largely remaining unconcerned about the people of Gaza. “Opposition isn’t as strong as it could and should be, and not necessarily for the right reasons,” he argued.
The expert explained that expanding the offensive could lead to protracted urban warfare, which the Israeli army tries to avoid by moving in gradually to reduce casualties and protect its troops, and added that the longer the operation drags on, the greater the pressure for a ceasefire that could halt it.
Subscribe now to Inside MENA
Israel’s war has killed over 62,000 Palestinians – the lowest death toll count – and displaced about 90% of the population. Its healthcare system has collapsed, and starvation has been deliberately used as a weapon of war.
Tel Aviv now controls around three-quarters of Gaza, confining nearly all its two million citizens to the remaining quarter.
“A full occupation of Gaza City, where half of the residents are sheltering in the rubble, will be devastating for a population already on the brink of death,” Sheline commented. “The Israeli military has deliberately eliminated the possibility of survival for Gazans to force them to leave.”
Iraqi stressed that an invasion of Gaza City would exacerbate conditions already making survival extremely difficult, effectively pressuring residents to abandon the city. “Having Israeli soldiers on the ground manning checkpoints, raiding buildings, and forcing people from their homes adds another layer of making life utterly unbearable,” the senior analyst said.
Baskin described the overall situation as a “humanitarian disaster on steroids”, warning that an Israeli air and ground campaign in Gaza City could result in destruction on the scale of Khan Younis and Rafah.
Gaza’s population is being pushed into an overcrowded area in the south, almost devoid of basic infrastructure or services. With only tents for shelter, Palestinians are exposed to extreme weather and remain vulnerable to Israeli strikes on these so-called humanitarian zones whenever Hamas is suspected of operating nearby, or even when it isn’t.
“Israel is working diligently towards ethnic cleansing in Gaza, with the tent camps in Al-Mawasi and Rafah intentionally designed to make it easier to force people out,” Ben-Ephraim said.
Alessandra Bajec is a freelance journalist currently based in Tunis
