* Dr Ali Abdul Rahim (Sudanese lecturer at SOAS)
****Abbas Hamza (journalist and author)
Since April 15, 2023, the Sudanese army and the paramilitary Rapid Security Forces (RSF) have been locked in a war that numerous regional and international mediations have failed to end. The conflict has killed about 20,000 people and displaced over 15 million as refugees and internally displaced persons, according to UN and local reports. Calls are being made for it to stop.
What is happening in Sudan? Why has the international community failed to stop it or protect the civilians? What is the future in this war-torn country that has already lost one third of its territory in 2011 when South Sudan declared independence?
Tuesday, 18th November 2025
Dr Ali Abdul Rahim: I will start my talk about the current situation in Sudan now. I will talk about situation in Kordofan and Darfur which is happening at the moment and will also then talk about the international involvement. At the moment fighting is taking place in Western Sudan in Darfur and in Kordofan and this intensive fighting that is taking place in Kordofan as we speak has been a tit for tat affair.
I say this because there is a possibility that this may continue for some time to come and the decisive victory may be illusive for both sides, especially Western Sudan. This is different from what used to be the case when the fighting started when the war broke out two years ago.
When the war started the RSF had the upper hand. The military was confined mostly to its barracks in Khartoum and in the middle states of Al Jazeera and the RSF was seeking control of these areas in addition to Western Sudan. There is still some speculation about why this happened. First why the military was unable to prevent this war taking place and secondly when it did take place why the military was unable to defeat the RSF and inflict a quick and decisive defeat considering that they had the upper hand because they had aircraft, something that the RSF does not have.
So why did this happen? The RSF are the rapid support forces. They were a wing of the army for many years. In 2003 they confronted the army and war broke out between the two factions. This is different from what is happening now. During the first year and a half of the war when the RSF was fighting the army in the middle regions the army was short on manpower and they had major logistical problems which prevented them from leaving their own barracks – even their own states.
The army headquarters were besieged. It seems that in a few months the forces in the other regions in the north and east of Sudan raised the siege and defeated the RSF in Jazeera and restored some kind of order and normality.
This is different from what is happening now in Western Sudan as the momentum was in favour of the RSF and then they started their counterattack. What is happening now in Darfur is a tit for tat kind of ongoing daily battle where no ground is held for a long time. There is a social aspect to this. In the West many of the tribes are now taking the side of the RSF. So this might have played a role in allowing the RSF to prolong the war that is taking place in Western Sudan and prevent the army from achieving a decisive victory there.
So this is the situation. The religious situation on the other hand is also vague and the reason is that the army does not have a political faction beside the religious factions so the political faction is the same one that was ousted in 2019. That was the regime that ruled Sudan for 30 years. That is the only political wing that is presently active in Sudan. The same people that the Sudanese ousted are now the ones who are a siding with the army which is fighting to regain the country. So previous enemies, present friends.
It is dilemma. There is an Arabic story about the man who tried to domesticate a hyena. This is impossible. You cannot make a hyena a friend. The previous regime and the army have now created this monster that was now see. It is trying to devour its creator.
This is a concondrum for the Sudanese people who fought against Bashir are undermined. The people who were ousted from power are now fighting to get the country back. On the other hand we have the opposite – a mosaic of leftist and traditional parties. We have the leftists who are seeking an alliance with some of the traditional parties who are by Western standards considered right wing because they come from a religious area. These are groups who are based on the Sufi tradition. So every one of these groups are now in an alliance with groups which have nothing in common except the common enemy.
Now to add to the complexity of the scene this mosaic is more or less in an alliance with the RSF and this group has been nurtured for many years even before the creation of the RSF by the West. I want to say this because I want to say a few words about the international involvement in the conflict.
But just to conclude what I want to say about the present situation in Sudan. We have this complexity where the faction that has been in political struggle with the Islamists who have ruled for 30 years is now siding with the RSF that hijacked Sudan from its people and committed the kind of atrocities that you are now fully aware of.
It is a very complex political situation and I want to conclude that however this war ends the army will take control politically speaking. So the idea that the army is now in power just to fight the war and once they dust has settled the army will hand over power to a civilian government is just a fantasy. This is not going to happen.
It is important to say a few things about these political alliances because they will affect the political scene once the war ends. Now with regard to the international involvement the West have invested in and politically nurtuered factions in Sudan: mostly the left but also with a mixture or right political groups. The fact that this group has sided with the RSF means that there will be almost any possibility for them to rule in case the RSF emerges victorious and even if the RAF does not rule the entire Sudan there is a chance Darfur will secede and if it does it remains a big political question whether these political parties can emerge back on the scene after.
The West having invested in them for such a long time I don’t think they will give up on that. They will try and convince the Sudanese that these are the people who should rule them. They will need some magic to convince them of this after what has happened. But they will not give up as they do not have any alternative. There are not enough politicians active in Sudan who are capable of presenting themselves as viable choices for government.
The army will rule Sudan or at least part of it and perhaps Darfur and if that happens the only political faction that the army is allied with are the Islamists. This will continue when the fighting is over. This is what happened in Syria when a jihadi faction in fact Al Qaeda who were fighting in Syria took over. They seem to be quite in harmony with the West. They took control in circumstances which are known to you, the balance or the scale in which you had Russia and Iran which have influence with the Assad regime and then you have Al Qaeda as a potential ally of Turkey and some of the Gulf states as well. It seems the West chose Al Qaeda.
If that could happen in Syria with a far more extreme faction why is it not possible for it to happen in Sudan. It would provide far more stability than we have now and it might be the only choice considering that the alternative RSF and everything that happened with the RSF it does not seems like a viable political option. So what is available in Sudan now. I do not see any other alternatives. If the West insists on confronting the Islamists given it has made its position clear in regard to the RSF which is unwanted and must be removed. From the Western perspective there is no choice; either it gives up on Sudan completely and allows the UAE, Egypt Saudi Arabia and Qatar to decide the fate of Sudan or they will have to choose between the RSF and the Islamists. It is a very difficult choice for them. If they did it in Syria they could do it in Sudan.
Abbas Hamza: The RSF is the militia Janjaweed. They are the Janjaweed militia. I do not use RSF. We need to identify the main reason of this war. The war is deeply harmful and heartbreaking. There are a lot of stories on social media which are just a lie. They want to insult the intelligence of the people mainly those who are not Sudanese. The main reason of this war is the inability of the Sudanese army to ally itself with the revolution and its aspirations.
The Sudanese people have been chanting for freedom and justice. In 2019 the military said they support the people but they didn’t – they went down another road and also the real reason for this war or the definition of this war is a power struggle between the warring parties. Each of them want to take control of the country and to steal the gold and the wealth of Sudan. This is the right definition because I do hear and see every day on different social media outlets lots of definitions which are not real. The war crimes and the crimes against humanity and rapes that are being committed now in Sudan are the most serious crimes in the world. However it does not surprise me and it does not shock me because of what I have seen every day in Sudan.
When I was working for Al Aya daily in 2002, 2003 and 2004 me and my colleagues reported every day. At that time two intelligence officers used to come to our offices every single day and they would delete any news related to Darfur or to corruption. So the old regime who took responsibility for what was going on in Sudan imposed a severe media blackout because they did not want the people in Sudan and world to know what was going on in Darfur at that time.
Despite this war crimes, rapes and crimes against humanity were documented and handed over to the prosecutor of the ICC at that time. I just wanted to establish a real and clear picture for you. There are serious risks now that constitute a real challenge and the greatest risk now is the continuation of the war and the political leaders or the political forces who are behind the scenes now controlling this war and do not want it to stop. Here I mean the Islamist regime and there are a lot of international efforts to stop this war but they do not want to stop it.
Also now Kordofan state is a real risk because it is being attacked every day and it is about to fall to the militia as well. So I think it is better for us and all the Sudanese people to stop the war and save lives and save Kordofan because if it falls to the janjaweed militia they will control all of Western Sudan and politically they will gain and develop their position.
We do not want that to happen and we should stop the war. But there is a conflict of interests going on here and that is why the Islamist regime does not want to stop this war. This is the first time in the history of Sudan for the region of Darfur to go out of the control of the central government. This was preceded by the south of Sudan when we lost about one third of our country in the 2011 referendum. And we lost Halibetean and other areas as well. And now the janjaweed are about to take over Kordofan as well. If it happens it will complicate the situation politically and it will expose the vulnerable Sudanese people to further risks and that could be a threat to their lives.
Millions of Sudanese people are refugees now and displaced and more than 150,000 people have died. There is a new factor now which is the unidentified aircraft most likely Turkish and Egyptian who are doing a great job in Western Sudan to defeat the militia.
Also the real risk that threatens our country is the proliferation of weapons which are distributed by the army all over Sudan and the weapons are being handed over to the children and to the youth as well without knowing how or when to use them. So this poses a real risk to the future of our country – it’s a real threat to the safety of the people.
But another problem that Sudan faces is the mindset that produced militias. During this war the army has produced more than 12 militias. Each one has thousands of fighters. Most of them are children.
Now we need to find a real solution to this war. I have my own idea about that but I think the real problem is the political forces who are behind the scenes and are fuelling this war. The Emirates is playing a great role but the war is injected purely by Sudanese hands. They each want to take power and they want to defeat the civilians. They do not want civilian rule in Sudan. The Sudanese people love democracy. They do not want to be ruled by the military. That is why we had three revolutions, the first one in 1964, the second one in 1985 and the third one is this one and it is still going on.
My colleague said that the army will rule the country if this war is ended. The Sudanese people will not allow them to rule us again and we will fight them. If the war stops we will take to the streets and protest against them. So the Sudanese revolution is still there despite this war ignited to defeat the revolution and the rule of the civilians. But we are still there and we will win because the Sudanese said very clearly we need freedom, peace and justice and we do not ask anyone to give us this. The Sudanese people are decision makers. They want to be ruled by democracy. We need to end this vicious circle which has been going on for years in Sudan: a military coup then democracy then another coup. We need to end this vicious circle as it in the interests of the Sudanese people as well.
Since 1989 when the revolution started one of its aims was to hold all these politicians and criminals accountable and we took some steps but the Sudanese army protected them from being sentenced. Now they must be arrested and sentenced. This is the best start for the new Sudan because they are notorious criminals who stole from the country. They have to be sentenced and we must make sure that justice is upheld.
Dr Ali Abdulrahim Ali is a political analyst and academic at the University of London’s School of Oriental and African Studies (SOAS)
Abbas Hamza is an accomplished freelance journalist and political analyst with 20 years of experience. He possesses a deep understanding of Sudanese, Arab, and African affairs. He has provided comments to news outlets and appeared on several radio and TV news channels, including BBC Arabic and Al Jazeera.
