Analysis: Labour paid a political price for Gaza. But under Andy Burnham, Britain’s Middle East policy is likely to change more in tone than in substance.
On 20 July, Andy Burnham enters Downing Street facing a Middle East transformed by widening conflict.
Gaza lies in ruins despite a fragile ceasefire, Israeli settlements are expanding across the occupied West Bank, while the US-Israeli war against Iran has heightened risks to regional stability and the global economy.
Those expecting an immediate overhaul of British policy may nevertheless be disappointed. The former Greater Manchester mayor enters office with limited recent foreign policy experience, while his immediate priority will be restoring the Labour Party’s weakened domestic standing.
Under Keir Starmer, the Labour government’s popularity sank amid the cost-of-living crisis, continued fiscal austerity, alongside criticism from the right over perceived weakness on migration.
Burnham’s Middle East approach is likely to constitute a selective reset rather than a comprehensive one. That may include some more pressure on Israel, caution over involvement in another war with Iran, and broad continuity in Britain’s economic and security relationships with Washington and the Gulf.
However, answering critical public opinion of Labour’s handling of Middle East policy will guide his stance.
On Iran, Burnham’s approach appears relatively cautious. Although he voted in favour of the disastrous 2003 invasion of Iraq, he has since drawn on the destruction of that war to warn against dragging Britain into another major regional conflict.
He would likely resist direct British participation in any open-ended military campaign against Iran. Yet maintaining a clear line of non-participation may prove difficult.
Pressure from the Trump administration, Britain’s military facilities across the region, its defence partnerships with Gulf monarchies, and its commitment to securing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz all bind London closely to the US-led regional security architecture.
Burnham’s decision to retain Jonathan Powell as national security adviser further signals that Britain’s Atlanticist orientation will endure.
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Hellyer noted that while there’s “real scope” for a European tilt, “Washington remains the anchor, since real strategic autonomy needs capabilities Britain doesn’t have and shows no institutional ability to build”.
Burnham’s immediate priorities, such as steadying the ship domestically and restoring Labour’s lost popularity, make broad continuity in foreign policy the most likely outcome.
He has promised closer security cooperation with France, Germany and the EU, which could open the door to a more coordinated European approach on sanctions, Palestine, and diplomacy with Iran.
However, this will not diminish Washington’s centrality, especially while Donald Trump’s decisions continue to drive regional escalation.
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“Britain’s relationship with Washington is ultimately a choice, and one whose wisdom is obviously questionable in the context of an increasingly extreme and unstable Trump presidency,” David Wearing, assistant professor in international relations at the University of Sussex, told The New Arab.
“The obvious choice is to balance more closely toward the Europeans, but the attachment to Washington in British policymaking circles is strong – more an article of faith than a product of cold reason – which leaves the UK stranded in a very uncomfortable position.”
Gulf monarchies are also likely to see even greater continuity. In May, Starmer’s government concluded a free-trade agreement with the six GCC states, projected to add £3.7 billion annually to the British economy.
With Burnham’s focus on reviving the UK economy and sustaining a military and security presence in the Gulf, including efforts to secure the Strait of Hormuz, ties are set to remain strong. Gulf investment into the UK, British arms sales, energy cooperation, and broader trade links are all expected to continue largely uninterrupted.
A selective reset
For now, Burnham appears likely to change Labour’s tone and move further on some issues, rather than overturn Starmer’s approach. For those alienated by Labour’s record, that may still offer some cautious hope.
His first months in office will show whether his more sympathetic language leads to meaningful change, or whether continuity ultimately prevails.
Jonathan Fenton-Harvey is a journalist and researcher who focuses on conflict, geopolitics, and humanitarian issues in the Middle East and North Africa
