Analysis: The defence pact between Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan lays the foundation for a Middle Eastern security order less dependent on outside powers
After more than a year of talks, Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed a landmark defence pact last week in Mecca.
Bringing together Pakistan, the only nuclear-armed Muslim country, Saudi Arabia, one of the world’s largest oil exporters and custodian of Islam’s holiest sites, and Turkey, NATO’s second-largest military, the agreement marks a significant shift in the regional security architecture.
The pact stipulates that an armed attack against one of the three countries would be treated as an attack against all, echoing NATO’s Article 5. It also builds on the Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA) signed by Riyadh and Islamabad last September. Unlike that bilateral accord, however, the new arrangement could be expanded to include other countries.
Rayed Krimly, Saudi Arabia’s deputy minister for public diplomacy, stressed that the agreement does not “supersede or replace” existing bilateral or multilateral arrangements. Nor, he said, is it linked to nuclear ambitions or an arms race, but rather to building “sustainable capabilities”.
He was equally pointed that the pact was not an escalation between any two states or a threat to any country in the region.
This careful language suggests that the pact is intended less as a military coalition against Iran, Israel or any other specific adversary, than an attempt to build a more durable regional security order based on mutual defence and non-aggression.
That ambition has gained urgency. The Iran conflict has exposed the fragility of the region’s existing security arrangements, while uncertainty over the reliability of external security guarantees has grown. Houthi threats to Saudi oil infrastructure and shipping routes have added another layer of vulnerability.
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A new model of mutual defence
Significantly, the Mecca agreement has institutionalised collective deterrence, raising the costs of aggression against any member.
By consolidating their military and economic capabilities, the Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan troika seeks to create a security shield that makes deterrence a shared rather than national responsibility.
But each member gets the space to join the fray at a time and place of their own choosing, as the mutual defence clause does not specify any automatic, mandatory obligations. Diplomatic support would certainly be there, and maybe weapons or economic help, but putting troops on the ground has not yet been mentioned, and no further details were made available. In this initial stage at least, the Mecca alliance seems to be more of a diplomatic bloc.
Torek Farhadi, a senior geo-economic advisor based in Geneva, told The New Arab that the “sheer fact that these three countries are aligned in their political thinking is by itself a stabilising factor in an otherwise fractured Middle East”.
With Turkey and Pakistan both energy-importing countries, Saudi Arabia provides their economies with important resource security. Turkey being a NATO member, meanwhile, is positively viewed by Western capitals as a “provider of much-needed stability”, Farhadi said.
![Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan (L), Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (C) and Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif (R) sign a trilateral joint defense agreement in Mecca, Saudi Arabia, on 7 August 2026. [Getty]](https://www.newarab.com/sites/default/files/styles/large_16_9/public/2288615652.jpeg?h=2b7b8c69&itok=xZZZ0htG)
But it was the maturation of “two bilateral tracks that laid the political and military groundwork necessary for the Joint Defence Agreement signed in Mecca,” Zeynep Gizem Ozpinar, a Turkish foreign policy expert, told The New Arab.
In her opinion, the complementary capacities of the three countries are “Turkey’s defence industry and operational experience, Saudi Arabia’s financial strength and strategic geography, and Pakistan’s nuclear deterrence”.
The Mecca pact has brought together relationships that had previously advanced along separate channels within a shared strategic framework.
Explaining the depth of ties, Ozpinar noted that Turkey’s defence relationship with Pakistan rests on a foundation spanning decades, nourished by a discourse of brotherhood and gradually institutionalised over time.
Ankara’s ties with Riyadh, meanwhile, have undergone a visible process of “normalisation and rapprochement” in recent years. Reciprocal high-level visits, memoranda signed in the defence sector, and a rising volume of trade have all served as concrete indicators of trust-building on the Ankara-Riyadh axis, she said.
Where Saudi-Turkish ties are concerned, Ozpinar said that it was “Riyadh’s pursuit of strategic depth in the face of uncertainties within the regional security environment” that produced “favourable ground that aligns with Turkey’s defence industry capacity”.
Looking ahead, Junaid Javeed, a risk and security management expert, told The New Arab that the Mecca agreement has the potential to alter the strategic equation across a region stretching from the eastern Mediterranean to the northern Indian Ocean.
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Comparing the Mecca pact with NATO, Javeed said that the latter has more than just a mutual defence clause. “It is a deeply institutionalised alliance with established command structures, planning mechanisms and decades of operational integration, and the Mecca alliance is not on that level yet,” he told The New Arab.
Assessing the geopolitical impact of this agreement, Javeed said that Iran would “closely watch the agreement’s Gulf and maritime potential” while India would “assess what it means for Pakistan’s strategic capabilities”.
China, he said, will have “an interest in its effect on Gulf stability, while the United States will consider whether the arrangement strengthens or complicates the existing regional security architecture”, Javeed added.
While a political commitment has been created, the real challenge is building the machinery to get “military credibility”.
However, the analyst added that the maritime dimension may prove to be the most practical area for cooperation.
“Naval interoperability, coordinated exercises, and the protection of critical shipping routes could become important components of trilateral ties,” Javeed told The New Arab.
Putting the pact to the test
With collective deterrence a central part of the deal, the first challenge is keeping the Bab al-Mandab and Strait of Hormuz open.
Ever since the US- Israel war on Iran started, Gulf states have been on the receiving end of Iranian attacks. The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has also severely restricted their energy shipments, bringing the GCC’s oil industry to a halt.
Due to joint mediation efforts with Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt, Riyadh emerged from attacks in the Gulf relatively unscathed. But that has now all changed.
A Houthi blockade on Saudi-linked shipping, threats to expand it to the Bab al-Mandab, and attacks on oil assets in the kingdom have forced Riyadh to change its strategy.
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So far, Saudi Arabia has responded with airstrikes and announced a maritime defence coalition to protect shipping routes. Along with Pakistan and Turkey, 14 other countries have joined to play a supporting role, though avoiding direct attacks on the Houthis.
Under the SMDA, Pakistan had already added 8,000 more troops to its permanent unit deployment in the kingdom, along with fighter jets, drones, and air defence systems. And now with the Mecca pact, Ankara, Riyadh, and Islamabad are expected to make a show of strength.
“The most consequential feature of the pact is the collective defence commitment, but it will all depend on what follows the signing,” Javeed told The New Arab.
“A defence commitment on paper is one thing, and turning it into workable planning, interoperability, intelligence coordination, and military capacity is another.”
Nevertheless, with Pakistan’s position on the Arabian Sea, Saudi Arabia’s strategic access to the Gulf and Red Sea, and Turkey’s naval capabilities, the three countries naturally complement each other.
What each country brings
Seeking regional stability rather than getting into unwanted war scenarios, this trilateral accord may remain focused on proactive defence. But if implemented effectively, the Saudi-Turkey-Pakistan agreement could rebalance the Middle East.
Ostensibly, Saudi Arabia contributes financial resources, diplomatic influence, and its central role in Gulf security. Turkey offers one of NATO’s most capable militaries alongside a rapidly expanding indigenous defence industry that has emerged as a global exporter of drones, missiles, naval platforms, and armoured vehicles.
Meanwhile, Pakistan provides one of the region’s largest and most experienced armed forces, extensive counterterrorism expertise, and the unique status of being the only nuclear-armed Muslim state.
Discussing the implications of the deal for Pakistan, Abdullah Khan, Managing Director at the Pakistan Institute for Conflict and Security Studies in Islamabad, told The New Arab that the trilateral defence MoU significantly strengthens Pakistan’s strategic standing both in the Gulf and across South Asia.
“The space Pakistan had progressively lost to India in the Middle East is being reclaimed – and in many ways exceeded – through this institutionalised partnership with two major regional powers,” Khan told The New Arab.
The agreement will also have an impact in South Asia, creating “new openings for Pakistan-India dialogue as Saudi Arabia, bound by mutual defence commitments with Pakistan, has no interest in being drawn into a military confrontation involving India”.
Therefore, Arab states may “use their diplomatic influence to encourage New Delhi toward meaningful engagement with Islamabad for regional stability”.
In Javeed’s opinion, Pakistan brings operational experience, military expertise and geography, with its armed forces having decades of experience in conventional operations and counterterrorism, and its location connecting South Asia with the Gulf, Arabian Sea, and the wider Indian Ocean.
Together, these capabilities can create a complementary rather than overlapping security partnership. Turkey’s advanced defence manufacturing complements Pakistan’s production capabilities, while Saudi investment could accelerate joint research, technology transfer and large-scale production.
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More countries will likely join the Mecca alliance, and it is expected to be a more flexible security partnership than a focused military alliance, as the ethos of the grouping is going to remain “collective deterrence”.
In line with Turkey’s defence diplomacy and Pakistan’s customised security deals with regional states, it may turn out to be a win-win situation.
Putting less pressure on the US, which would continue as a main security guarantor, and, hopefully, keeping oil routes open for the GCC, the Mecca alliance may be exactly what the region needs.
The pact could extend beyond these three initial signatories and a wider trend could emerge whereby local states would “seek greater control over their own defence”, Javeed told The New Arab.
But it all depends on whether the pact develops as a sustainable partnership without drifting into “bloc politics” or commitments that partners are unwilling to sustain.
“We may see Egypt joining in the near term, with Kuwait and Qatar potentially following. Overall, this is a defensive, stabilising step that enhances collective deterrence while reinforcing Pakistan’s role as a key security partner in the Muslim world,” Khan told The New Arab.
“For Ankara, the principal gain of the agreement lies in multiplying its strategic options and expanding the scope of its foreign policy,” Ozpinar said.
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“Operating within a framework built on the principle of collective deterrence, Turkey is opening new markets for its defence industry exports and positioning itself as one of the founding actors in the emerging security architecture of the Islamic world.”
She noted that this could be regarded as a “natural extension of the multidimensional, multi-vector foreign policy approach Ankara has pursued for some time, and the defence industry dimension constitutes the most tangible aspect of these gains”.
Pakistan’s large military and missile technology further completes this picture.
“As integration deepens among the three countries in areas such as air defence, early warning systems, maritime security, and intelligence sharing, Turkey’s position within the regional defence market will strengthen.”
Sabena Siddiqui is a foreign affairs journalist, lawyer, and geopolitical analyst specialising in modern China, the Belt and Road Initiative, the Middle East, and South Asia
