Analysis: Renewed hostilities between the Houthis and government forces have shattered three years of an uneasy truce. Many now fear all-out war is inevitable.
Analysis: As regional powers deepen security ties, Egypt is strengthening key partnerships while preserving its strategic flexibility.
Egypt’s current absence from the collective security pact signed between Turkey, Pakistan, and Saudi Arabia, dubbed the ‘Mecca Agreement’, has brought renewed attention to Egypt’s security strategy towards its regional allies and the wider region.
While speculation surrounding Egypt’s absence from the agreement abounds, understanding Cairo’s position requires looking beyond the Mecca Agreement.
Egypt’s regional security posture has historically been shaped by a preference for strategic flexibility, driven by the recognition that its interests often require maintaining relationships with competing regional and international actors.
Today, this approach is being tested by an increasingly volatile regional environment marked by state and non-state threats, from Israel’s expanding regional wars to the US-Israel-Iran war and its fallout.
The complexities of this geostrategic environment have compelled Cairo to emphasise diplomacy, mediation, and issue-based security cooperation over concrete, bloc-based alignments.
Its rapprochement with Turkey, expanding security ties with major regional players including Saudi Arabia, and maintenance of diplomatic backchannels with rival actors underscore Egypt’s efforts to diversify its security partnerships while preserving the flexibility to engage across regional fault lines.
Security through diplomacy
A 1955 telegram from the US Embassy in Cairo to the US Department of State documented a tense exchange between then Egyptian President Gamal Abdel Nasser and then US Assistant Secretary of State George Allen over Egypt’s acquisition of Czechoslovak arms.
During the exchange, Nasser expressed doubts about Washington’s reliability as a security partner and raised concerns about Israel’s growing influence and territorial ambitions, particularly the influence of the Herut party, the predecessor to today’s Likud.
The exchange reflects a key feature of Egyptian strategic thinking. Cairo has long been sceptical of overreliance on a single external security umbrella, preferring instead to preserve room for manoeuvre.
Related
Mecca pact: How the Middle East is building a new security order
Sabena Siddiqui
That instinct remains salient in Cairo’s approach today. “Egypt has largely focused on managing and balancing its bilateral relationships with all major regional players to address growing instability and threats,” Liam Karr, Africa Team Lead at the Critical Threats Project, told The New Arab.
Egypt’s security is increasingly being tested by instability beyond its immediate borders, primarily driven by Israel’s expanding regional wars and now compounded by the US-Israel-Iran war. Previously assumed to be relatively shielded from these developments, Egypt has increasingly found itself directly exposed to their consequences.
Israel’s war on Gaza heightened Egyptian threat perceptions, particularly amid Israeli calls at the time for the displacement of Palestinians into Sinai, a scenario Cairo repeatedly identified as a red line.
The war also brought Israeli incursions closer to Egyptian territory. Throughout the war, Israel repeatedly asserted control over the Philadelphi Corridor, a narrow strip along the Egypt-Gaza border whose security arrangements have been shaped by the 1979 Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty and subsequent agreements.
“Egypt’s threat perception has been shaped particularly by Israel’s unilateral security expansionism. This perception led to a greater emphasis on mediation across regional fault lines, while balancing against Cairo’s rivals, first and foremost Israel,” Ahmed Aboudouh, Associate Fellow at Chatham House’s Middle East and North Africa Programme, told The New Arab.
Egypt’s response focused heavily on diplomacy. Alongside Qatar, Cairo maintained a central role in efforts to mediate between Israel and Hamas, positioning itself as an intermediary capable of communicating with multiple sides.
Earlier this month, US special envoy Jared Kushner met a Hamas delegation led by Khalil al-Hayya in Egypt, in a rare direct high-level meeting, to discuss implementation of the Board of Peace’s roadmap, namely the question of Hamas’s disarmament.
A durable end to the war on Gaza is vital to Egypt’s economic and security stability, particularly as the conflict continues to generate pressure along its border and across the Red Sea. Egypt’s economic vulnerabilities have raised the stakes. The Suez Canal, one of the country’s main sources of foreign currency, saw revenues collapse by roughly two-thirds at the height of Houthi attacks on Red Sea shipping.
The resumption of attacks on Red Sea shipping and rising regional tensions stemming from the US-Israel-Iran war further jeopardise Egypt’s economic security. Cairo also remains heavily reliant on Gulf investment and financial support, making stability across the Gulf and Red Sea increasingly inseparable from its own economic security.
