Open Discussions/ Gulf Cultural Club
Iran: Revolution and state after 40 years
Mohammad Iqbal Asaria*
Dr Marcus Popadopoulos**
Alireza Valizadeh***
These days forty years ago the world was anxiously holding its nerves in anticipation of massive political change in the Middle East. The most “formidable” US ally in the region was losing grip and different generation of revolutionaries was emerging. This time the challenge to American hegemony was being spearheaded by an elderly cleric who would permanently alter the balance of power in the Middle East, challenge the world’s political system and threaten to alter its power play. By introducing religion into the political struggle and adopting the ideology of “liberation of the oppressed” he had rekindled memories of the human struggle throughout history. After four decades; how does Iran look today? How much of the sanctions it can take? And how much has its experience with marrying politics and religion achieved? And finally will the Islamic regime survive the post JCPOA challenges?
Monday, 4th February 2019
Chairman: Charles Kurzman author of The Unthinkable Revolution in Iran has said that as long as the revolution remains unthinkable it becomes undoeable. He is a sociologist who has conducted research in Iran and among Iranian immigrants. He has built theories around revolutions which in turn emphasise economics, political, cultural, organisational and military factors and finds no single explanation sufficient for this particular revolution. He concludes that as long as revolution remains unthinkable it remains undoeable. He says: “So long as the revolution remains unthinkable it will remain undoeable. It will come to pass only when large numbers of people begin to think the unthinkable.” No one ever thought it was going to happen. Who could imagine that an old man in his 70s exiled from his land back in 1979 (40 years ago) could bring about a revolution. He did not have a kalashnikov or an army. He only had rosary beads in his hand and a prayer mat. The people in Paris asked him how to you feel about Iran and he said I feel nothing. There was no jubilation. He did not say I have achieved something remarkable, I should be dancing for joy. He said ‘nothing’.
Dr Marcus Papadopoulos: Thank you to Open Discussions in association with the Gulf Cultural Club who invited me to speak here tonight. I am absolutely delighted to be contributing to a discussion on what was a historical event.
First I have to say how ironic it is that we can actually gather here tonight to discuss the 40th anniversary of the Iranian revolution. The US as I speak was attempting a coup in Venezuela overthrowing the legitimate president. The parallels between Iran and Venezuela are very striking.
I should first speak a little bit about myself. I wear two hats in politics. The first at is a editor of Politics First which is a non partisan publication. It is written by MPs for MPs including articles by the prime minister. I am also a member of the parliamentary press gallery. The second hat I wear is a television commentator and writer on matters relating to Russia (the former Soviet Union) and also the former Yugoslavia. I hold a PhD in Russian history but I also cover Syria extensively and also Iran.
Iran is a country I first heard about as a child. My father was a Greek Cypriot and I learned from him about the Persian empire and rulers which such as Cyrus the Great. So I developed an understanding from quite a young age that Iran is an ancient country. Partly because of that awareness as a child during the 1980s and 1990s I think it is fair to say that I was immune to the malicious propaganda that I witnessed on television and in the newspapers.
I developed a realisation of how to see through the propaganda. I will apply that realization not just to Iran but also to countries such as Russia, Syria, Serbia and Venezuela which as we all know have been subjected to appalling lies from the US.
So looking at 40 years of Iran’s revolution for me the most important dimension to this historical turning point is that Iran and its people reclaimed their independence and dignity following years of enduring the humiliation and indignity of being a client vassal state of the US. That the Iranian people once of the world’s great civilisations had been enslaved to America one of the most decadant countries in the world remains a source of discomfort for many.
Today Iran is a self respecting, independent country which pursues its interests in the Middle East and the wider world far more in accordance with the United Nations charter and international law than countries such as the UK and the USA.
Iran’s national industries and resources are owned and managed by the Iranian state which means the Iranian people. From the days when American corporations exploited Iran’s riches for their own selfish gains because of the Iranian revolution Iranians are first and foremost the beneficiaries of Iran’s immense riches. Iran is the fifth country in the world in the volume of natural resources such as oil, gas and coal and it is the fourth richest country globally in terms of fossil fuels.
Since 1979 Iran’s wealth has been in the hands of the people and it is for this reason that America seeks the overthrow of the government and the destruction of the Iranian revolution. Iran was once an American client state.
There are many domestic achievements of the Iranian revolution but for me there are two which stand out the most and they are education and health which are most important for any civilised society in the world.
Starting with education. Up until 2014 Iran was ranked first in literacy development among persons over the age of 15 while since 1979 the percentage of literate people over the age of 50 has dropped to 85 percent. In health life expectancy is 76 as opposed to 55 in 1979. Iran was ranked tenth in the world in life expectancy from 1979 to 2016. Also in 2016 Iran was ranked as having the most efficient health care system in the world. This is a very important point which is not discussed. The suicide rate in Iran is fairly low. The mental health of Iranians is generally high. Iran today is ranked 164 out of 183 countries in having the lowest suicide rate in the world. That is something Iran and its people should be proud of.
Turning to Iran’s role in the Middle East which changed over night as a result of the Iranian revolution, Iran’s most recent accomplishment and that which benefits most people in the world is that Iran has played a very significant role in the defense of terrorism in Syria: terrorism backed by the US and the UK, France Turkey and of course Saudi Arabia. And I am sure we all know that Saudi Arabia is the leading financier of terrorism in the world.
Not only has Iran’s military assistance to the Syrian people proved to be of immense importance in having defeated the terrorist groups who have waged a brutal merciless war against Syria including Al Qaeda, the so called Syrian Free Army and ISIS. We need to recognise that the assistance Iran has given to Syria has helped sustain the Syrian Arab army on the front line. This is the heart and soul of the fight against the same brand of terrorism that was responsible for the heinous attacks in Manchester and London.
And we must also be able to recognise that Iran has been able to provide military and financial assistance to Syria over a very long period of time because the Iranian economy is robust enough to allow for that. After the Iranian revolution the Iranian state had not been able to create a strong economy. Iran has given political support to Syria but they have not been able to give economic support and that could have had a very detrimental effect in Syria.
Since the Iranian Revolution, Iran has been steadfast in support for the leaders of the Palestinian people shaming all governments in the Arab world with the exception of the Syrian government. Other governments have turned their backs on the Palestinians because they wanted to preserve their relationship with ‘America which in turn provides these governments (not the ordinary Arab) with so much wealth that these governments do not know what to do with it.
An official alliance has now arisen between Russia, Syria and Iran in the Middle East. Iran will be able to place limits. America is still going to be the dominant outside power in the Middle East but this unofficial alliance will be able to place limits on what America wants to do in the Middle East. That is good for peace, stability and the ordinary person in the region and Iran plays a role in that alliance because it has an independent foreign policy thanks to the Iranian revolution.
I referred to the current situation in Venezuela where the Americans have committed another brazen act against the United Nations charter and international law in general. And let me say again it is a horrific attack on the United Nationscharter and international law. Iran and Venezuela are targeted by the US because they are both situated in geo strategic parts of the world. The Americans have an insatiable lust for natural resources, especially oil and both Venezuela and Iran are fiercely protective of their independence and sovereignty and have vowed not to surrender their resources to any other government of the world.
Iran and Caracas know very well what it is to be an American brothel hence both will resist all attempts by Washington to destroy their independence. Further to that it is vitally important for Iran’s security and Venezuela’s security that both countries remain free from the clutches of both MessersTrump and Bolton and whoever their eventual successors might be.
Mistakes have been made by Iran’s successive governments such as actions during the Bosnian civil war. There were excesses following the Iranian revolution such as silencing certain political parties. All governments make serious mistakes and there are always accesses. I am not trying to justify them. I am just saying that is human nature. We need to recognise that in the case of Russia, Serbia, Syria and Britain – it goes right across the board.
There are practices in Iran which I object to like making the hijab compulsory. My criticism is of a constructive nature and one that is made against the background of my firm and unwavering conviction that Iran must have elections. But it is down to the Iranians themselves to decide on internal matters. In short whatever is conducive to Iran and to preserving its national identity and culture and whatever maintains Iranian independence and sovereignty. We can feed back to each other but we must always recognise that every country is different and has its own unique historical experiences and its own cultures.
We can offer advice but what they do is up to them. Likewise I can take feedback from Iranians about my country Britain and it is up to British parliamentarians to discuss them. Let us share ideas now. Never patronise people and never ever project yourselves as being superior morally.
So I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate Iran on the 40th anniversary of the revolution. I wish the magnificent Iranian people good health and security over the next 40 years. Thank you very much.
Alireza Valizadeh: I am really delighted to be here and to share views about the Iranian revolution and what is happening– not only from one point of view but from a general perspective about events. And I want to take this opportunity to say thank you to the Gulf Cultural Club and Mr Saeed Shehabi for the invitation.
I am going to chose the topic that was the main slogan of the revolution and the government after the revolution: independence, freedom, Islamic and republic. These were the main promises of the Islamic Revolution in 1979. And democracy. How did it change in the last 40 years? It can be an interesting case.
When you hear from others they may be exaggerating one or two points and not explaining all the points about what is happening. The time is short but I have references and you can follow up the references if you are interested.
First of all independence. After the revolution the emphasis was on cultural and economic independence. In terms of science many students finished their studies abroad and returned to Iran. But after the revolution that movement declined a lot. And now 60 percent of students are woman.
Iran is the 22nd science producer of the whole world. In terms of independence in politics Iran is really independent. They take decisions themselves and in many situations they are influenced by others. Unfortunately in terms of the economy Iran is dependent on oil. Most of the economy depends on oil. Our culture was influenced by the oil culture and at the same time we influenced other cultures.
The second item in the slogan if freedom. The first was independence. Freedom House wrote 110 pages on 210 countries. Many Iranians are using facebook even though it is legally forbidden . Twitter is also forbidden but even the people in government are using it. The internet is coming from the outside. Our scientists are forbidden to have access to scientific articles because of the sanctions. That is very shocking. The other restriction is that a lot of services are blocked by the USA.
The next item is freedom. Economic and religious freedom and freedom to access the media. Here there are a lot of restrictions.
Iran was an Islamic country since the beginning of Islam in 633 AD. And it became a Shia country from 1511 AD. The Islamic Revolution did not bring Islam to Iran. It did not enforce Islamic law and Shariah law which had not been enforced. It was always like that. And even now there is no 100 percent enforcement of Islamic law. The Shia sites did develop a lot. Twenty million pilgrims a year visit the shrine of Imam Riza.
Then there is the issue of the republic and democracy in Iran. How did it change in the last 40 years. How big is the gap between the poor and the rich. The leaders of the revolution tried to bridge the gap. Now you see that from 1986 the gap between the rich and poor filled in a lot. After the last sanctions were imposed the rate of inflation in the country increased. Seventy percent of the labour force is on the poverty line.
Another margin to check with regard to democracy is the rights of the citizens. Dr Marcus spoke about public health. For me as an Iranian who was there for 32 years and then came here I say that the Iranian health system is working very well. I can promise that.
The next item is free education. Free education in Europe can fill the gap between the rich and the poor. Every Iranian can study and can go to the best university. In that way they can change their life. Everyone can study.
Now I will speak about politics and democracy. What are the main pillars of politics and democracy? What is it about the elections? How many elections happen in the country. From 1906 when there was the election until 1979 there were nopresidential elections – it was a monarchy. But after 1979 there were presidential elections. After the revolution there were 11 elections. There were also elections for the assembly of experts and municipal elections. There were constitutional elections three times before the revolution and just once after the revolution. And finally referendums. There were four referendums before the revolution and after the revolution there has been one referendum.
The next item is about the number of clerics. After the revolution 62 percent of all members of parliament were clerics. Now the number has declined a lot. Now5.9 percent of parliamentary members are cleric.
The next item is respect for minorities. This is one of the pillars of democracy. There are three different religious minorities Christians, Jews and Zoroastrians. Sunnis make up 10 percent of the population. During the last 40 years no Sunni was president. 1.9 percent of the experts assembly are Sunni and 4.6 of parliamentary members are Sunni.
We have paid a lot for independence . We have 200,250 martyrs during the last 40 years. That is a very big number, a very high price that we paid. It is not easy for an Iranian to get a visa to visit another country. Iranian assets have been frozen. That is 100 – 200 billion which are out of the country.
During 1978 there was a big flow of money out of the country with the people who invested it in luxury houses in Kensington.
Finally I say that $1 was 75.75 Iranian riyals at the time of the revolution. And now the price of $1 is 160,000 riyals. The rate of inflation is astronomical. Thank you to all of you.
Mohamed Iqbal Asaria: Thank you Dr Saeed for inviting me today. I want to relate an incident when Dr Saeed and I were visiting Iran. It was in 1980 during the war with Iraq. I want to start by relating a small anecdote. We were in Mashad and we decided to go for a walk. Two or three guards stopped us and said where are you going? Who are you? I spoke to them in fluent Farsi and they said these people are really suspicious. They even know Farsi. So you can see the mindset. They asked us for our passports and it took us three hours to extricate ourselves. We were friends but clearly in a situation of war you have to be prepared for anything. With the situation in Manchester if you are passing there with a rucksack you will not be left alone. The poor Brazilian guy was in the wrong place at the wrong time.
As Marcus said we are not here to offer unqualified support for the revolution. We are looking at the broad picture and the overall parameters. I want to take us back to the origin of the kind of movement we have seen in Iran over the past 40 years.Clearly most Iranians would agree with me that the origin of this is the constitutional revolution. In 1906 the constitutional movement originated.
The origin of that is the development in Shi law which is very interesting. In Shiism the imam when he is a successor to the Prophet is infallible and therefore cannot make a mistake. So whatever the imam says goes. But before his reappearance there is now confusion here whether his followers the top scholars also acquire that position. If they do we have a problem because they cannot say anything wrong.
Ayatollah Khomeini in 1980 has written a thesis because this problem was being experienced at that time. A lot of scholars were saying look the shariah is for us – we do not need constitutional rule. So a debate took place. He starts by explaining that in the occultation of the imam there is no infallible route so we should have a constitutional check on anyone. So the essence is that the constitution should be the rule and not a particular person.
Now as time went on a twist was brought into being which said that any law was subject to a veto by a council of Islamic scholars. And since Iqbal was mentioned, Iqbal says this is perhaps the biggest mistake the Iranian nation made. If they left the democratically elected representatives to decide what is right and wrong and drafted it into law things would have developed much better.
Remember that Iqbal was writing at the time of Reza Shah before the revolution but it was his observation that this was problematic. That discussion came to light after the over throw of President Mosadeq and during the revolution this became a big issue. In the constitution the principle is still enshrined that the Council of Guardians has the veto on any developments. That is still there.
There was a slight modification in the beginning and I think there was a little more open discussion on this. They had a twelve member Council of Guardians: six were religious scholars and six were legal experts. If there were issues of religion only than the decision of the religious scholars was mandatory. If there were general issues then it was the majority. What has happened over a period of time is that the religious scholars have identified any issue as only religiousand the other six members have become more or less redundant. And one of the issues which has been exercising minds is the qualifications for anybody standing for a political post.
What has happened is that the Guardianship Council has disqualified people it does not like claiming that this is a religious issue. So that problem is still hanging over regarding the constitutional authority of the people. It will resolve but I don’t know how. It is one of the vexed religious issues with a lot of history behind it.
The other issue is that because of the nature of things there is a slight mix up in the leadership of the vilayet al faqih and the judiciary because the faqih is supposed to appoint the judiciary. If you appoint somebody and that person makes mistakes and does not behave as you expect what are you going to do? We can go into cases where this has also created issues.
Having said that however this is a unique evolution over 40 years which was never practised anywhere. It is still evolving. There have been 13 elections, no coups, no military takeovers and sometimes the country was in very deep trouble.
During the Iran-Iraq war Saddam took over parts of the marshes and was supplied with chemical weapons. During this time Iran was able to hold together a political system with all its different facets and this is very difficult. Some elections have been held.
If you look at the Human Development Index for Iran clearly life expectancy of 76 is in the top ten of the world. In terms of female literacy rates Iran is at the OECD standard. Availability of clean water is at 99 percent of the population.It is not very different to what we have in this country and that is despite sanctions. So yes, they have done quite a lot. They have achieved quite a lot.
In 1985 I was sitting in India and I was telling them that life expectancy in Iran is better than ours. They said can’t be. We are sending people into space. Iran is a rubbish country. I said okay bring the figures and let me show you. You have to learn something. You have to see what can be done under the worst circumstances. Iran has been quite successful. That is why it is not easy to shake this system by external forces. External forces can shape Iran but they cannot destroy it.
Iran also has a predominantly young population. And there is another statistic. Iran has the most successful drug rehabilitation programme according to United Nations records. Now those of you who are Muslims will need to understand that drug rehabilitation involves giving drugs to addicts from state funds. So you can see the new kind of judicial thinking which has also happened in the country to allow these kinds of things to happen.
There is another aspect. The Leader of the vilayat al fiqahdoes not have to be Iranian. So I was wondering what would happen if a top Iraqi mujtahid was the leader of the vilayat al fiqah. The president has to be Iranian but not the leader.
Now what about the current situation? Part of the brief was to talk about the current situation. As far as the moral high ground is concerned the USA is loosing. So who is in the American hierarchy at the moment apart from President Trump. You have John Bolton the National Security Adviser who thinks that the MKO terrorists are the true freedom fighters for an independent Iran. They have relocated from Iraq to Albania which is a mafia state and now they are training them to go to Iran and take over. These people have no knowledge of what is happening in the world. The top US policy makers are psychopaths and the Europeans are not able to do anything. Any treaty they do not like they are withdrawing from: not only the nuclear treaty, climate change, whatever they don’t like they withdraw from it. They also say that if the international court rules against American soldiers for killing civilians in Afghanistan they will punish those judges and have sanctions against them. There is a rule of law and this is a bit scary. They supplied Saddam Hussein with chemical weapons and now they are portraying themselves as champions of democracy.
Then there is the US Congress. A very strange institution – sensible in some ways, childish in others. When President Obama was negotiating the nuclear deal with Iran, this Congress invited MKO terrorist to address them. And they were cheering them like school children –both parties. I wonder who is in charge. I have been to America, I like the people but I wonder if I have got the wrong end of the stick. They are a military power and they can do a lot of damage so we have to be careful about this.
Then we come to Europe. Europe is in a big dilemma. It can see the whole problem but it has to go with the United States. It does not like the sanctions but it has to go with the United States. The Chinese and Russians will take their own interests into account, they don’t discuss things.
The problem is that if this entity survives than the United States has big problems. If you look at 1953 President Mohamed Mosadeq only said we are going to nationalise our oil and they became so upset they overthrew him. After that every country nationalised its oil. There was no country which said this oil does not belong to us. Let it be exploited. There are now contracts to exploit oil.
So the problem is that if this thing survives every country will have an independent foreign policy or thinking and then we have to deal with them as equals. On top of that there are human development parameters such as education and accessto knowledge. Those who visit Iran see how despite the sanctions things can be done. How things can run.
The final point. Let us look at who funded Saddam Hussein: Saudi Arabia and Kuwait. The same people who are now funding the USA to fight Iran. If on one side there is Taliban and on the other side there is Saddam Hussein what do you do? You sit down and say I don’t interfere in anybody’s affairs. You have to make your corner safe.
The USA is jumping up and down about Cuba for the past 40 years. Cuba is nothing. I don’t think this phase is going to be easy but given its background Iran will survive.
* Mohamed Iqbal Asaria is an international economist advising several major institutions. He provided specialist advice on international financial flows, multi-lateral lending and international trade (1985 – 1995); and served as Chairman of the influential World Bank – NGO Committee (1985 – 1990).He is a Fellow of the Chartered Association of Certified Accountants and a graduate of the Victoria University of Manchester where he also completed his masters in Economics (Accounting & Finance). He was awarded the CBE in the 2005 Queen’s honours list for services to international development. Iqbal has advised several financial institutions in the UK and overseas on Islamic financial services as well as MCB.
Iqbal teaches post graduate courses in Islamic Finance, Banking and Insurance at several leading universities including CASS Business School, CASS Executive MBA program in Dubai,Aston Business School and Bangor Business School. For the last eight years Iqbal has been the convenor of the annual International Takaful Summit and is a leading thought leader in the Takaful industry.
** Dr Marcus Papadopoulos is the publisher and editor of Politics First magazine, which is a non-partisan publication for the British Government. He is also a regular television and radio commentator specialising in Russia and the rest of the former Soviet Union, the former Yugoslavia, Syria and British politics. He holds a PhD in Russian/Soviet history from Royal Holloway, University of London. Outside of his work, Marcus is a karate instructor, a vegan and animal rights activist.
*** Alireza Valizadeh was born and raised in Mashhad, the religious capital of Iran. He received his Bachelor’s degree from Isfahan university after living in the industrial capital of the country for 4 years. Then he moved to Tehran the political capital of the country to receive a degree in Master of Science. Following his scientific journey, Alireza moved to London to do a PhD at Brunel University. He is a social activist and member of Islamic Students Association.
