*Stephen Bell
(Stop the War coalition)
** Dr Ibrahim Al Aradi
(former member of Bahrain Doctors Association)
*** Ali Al Fayez
(former political prisoner and torture victim)
When the revolutions erupted in 2011, they engulfed several Arab countries. They were short-lived. But could they be re-invigorating themselves beneath the surface? The underpinning causes of those mass revolts have remained unchanged. The Israeli occupation of Palestine was a factor in fomenting dissent and has remained a source of bitterness to many. It may have become more destabilising as it has turned into a symptom of moral decadence of the regimes that joined the wagon of normalisation. Is a second Arab Spring inevitable?
Or is it the end of the Arab dream of a brighter dawn of liberation, freedom and human rights?
Tuesday 17th January 2023
Stephen Bell: It is always a privilege to speak at Abrar House and I feel an extra honour to share a platform with Ibrahim and Ali who have suffered for the Bahraini people. I am to examine the causes of the Arab spring and the prospects of its revival. In the time available to me I will only be scratching the surface as we have so much to learn from this pivotal event.
On the causes of the spring I want to highlight three issues: the inflexibility of the existing regimes, the increase of young people as a proportion of Arab society and the relative decline of US imperialism in the world and in the region.
The regimes in Tunisia, Egypt and elsewhere in the Arab world appeared to show great stability before 2011. Yet the impact of the economic crisis of 2007 – 2009 demonstrated their actual fragility. The repressive regimes have been able to operate while there is economic growth but with recession and inflation in basic commodity prices the regimes have little capacity to maintain the nation’s living standards.
According to the UN Development Index the annual growth rate of the Arab states fell by more than a half between 2010 and 2014 compared to the period 2000 – 2010.This reflected the inability of the regimes to recover from the global financial crisis and the political instability that arose from the mass risings.
Of course some regimes particularly in the GCC had substantial reserves and were able to make concessions. The Saudi regime launched a huge consumer stimulus programme. Even there it faced a sustained rising in Al Katif province. The composition of Arab society had been undergoing an important change. Population growth rates in the region have been among the highest in the world since the mid 1950s. This involved an enormous increase in the proportion of youth in society. Around 60 percent of the population are under the age of 30, the highest share in the history of the region.
In 2011 27.9 percent of the population, that is about a third, were between the ages of 15 and 29 – the highest proportion of any region in the world. In addition this new generation was the best educated and most highly urbanised in the history of the region. Over 55 percent of young people lived in towns and cities were thus exposed to accelerated social developments.
The problems of unemployment were profound. Forty seven percent of young Arab women were unemployed compared to a global average of 16 percent. Twenty four percent of young Arab men were unemployed compared to a global average of 13 percent. Unemployment of young people was the highest of any region in the world. Powerless and without prospects the youth were ready for change.
The final element in the situation was the emergence of a multi polar world. In 2011 US imperialism which is displaying a relative decline and suffering overload from interventions in Afghanistan and Iran.
This is in sharp contrast to 1956 when US imperialism was so dominant that it could end the invasion of Egypt by Britain, France and Israel simply by threatening a run on the pound. At that time the US accounted for approximately 40 percent of the world’s total economic product.
By 2010 the US position was not so dominant. It now accounted for 23 percent of the world’s product. In the same period in 1960 China accounted for just four percent of the world’s product. By 2019 that had risen to 16.3 percent.
So as the US economic decline fell from 40 percent to 23 percent other nations particularly from the developing world, China and the Bric nations rose. This meant that the US no longer had the capacity to pull together single handly the geo politics of the region as it had in 1956 or even earlier as it has in overthrowing Mossadeq in Iran in 1953.
It was not able to save its long term allies, Ben Ali and Mubarak. The US only began to restore the situation through the utilisation of resources of the GCC states. Hence we saw the movement of Saudi and UAE armed forces to save the Bahraini regime, the transfer of arms, the funding of mercenary forces by the Saudis into Libya to aid the establishment of armed opposition to regimes which had been targets of imperialism.
We also saw the pouring of Gulf funds into Egypt and Tunisia to stabilise conservative forces and the elements of the old regime. And of course the GCC initiative inside Yemen was used to divide the massive radical movement on Saudis own borders.
To save the existing order the GCC initiative gave immunity to President Saleh and gifted the presidency to Vice President Hadi. It retained the existing parliament while a new constitution was due to be drawn up by a committee appointed by Hadi. So the capacity of the US to intervene was reduced rather than completely exhausted.
However it still had reliable allies with huge resources in the Persian Gulf. Undoubtedly its alliance proved instrumental in ending the Arab spring. Twelve years later can we envisage a new wave or revolutionary struggle?
Let us take as our starting point the most downtrodden and oppressed of Arab society the Palestinians. At the moment the Palestinians immediate prospects could not appear worse. They are under the control of the most right wing government in the history of the Israeli state. Despite the explicitly racist features of the new Netanyahu team its formation has still been welcomed by the US and Britain.
Every day a new nakba continues threatening more Palestinian land, demolishing more houses and businesses, detaining adults and children alike and ever more settlements to crowd out the Palestinians from existence.
Meanwhile the search to achieve reconciliation among the Palestinian parties seems as fruitless as ever. And not one Arab government appears capable of acting effectively against the apartheid regime.
The Abrahamic Accords have delivered more of these governments to the US framework for a new Middle East. You could be forgiven for regarding this as hopeless position for the Palestinians.
In July 2022 the Washington Institute published a poll of Arab opinion on the Abraham Accords. Public opinion differed from the regime’s endorsements. In Bahrain 76 percent registered a negative opinion of the accords. In the Emirates 71 percent. Though not a signatory Saudi Arabia registered 75 percent against and Kuwait 81 percent against.
These figures were surpassed elsewhere. Eight six percent in the Lebanon. In Egypt 84 percent of its population opposed the accords. Forty three years after Sadat signed the peace treaty with Israel. In Jordan 84 percent rejected the accords 28 years after King Hussein signed a similar peace treaty.
No matter what the Arab regimes do the Arab people refuse to abandon the Palestinians and no matter what the difficulties they face the Palestinians absolutely refuse to enter the list of histories disappeared nations.
Let us recall one of the most important international events since 2011 – the Palestinian revolt of 2021. This rising may well prove to be more significant than the first intifada of 1987 and the second intifada of 2000.
In 2021 the revolt began in East Jerusalem when young Palestinians in the tiny community of Sheikh Jarrah refused to capitulate to settler provocations. Each night actions were organised in support of Sheikh Jarrah while youth at the Damascus Gate refused to be driven off by Israeli forces.
Matters came to a head when Israeli security brought in forces to invade the Al Aqsa mosque using tear gas and stun grenades and rifle butts against peaceful worshippers. No longer was this just the audacity of Palestinian youth. Now the identity, presence and dignity of the entire Palestinian people was under threat. And so they rose.
Inside Israel itself Palestinians shrugged off the obliterating term Israeli Arabs and organised actions and defense committees in Haifa, Acca, Nazareth and elsewhere sending buses of supporters to East Jerusalem. Inside the West Bank large demonstrations and protests took place many co-ordinated in timing. These were unmatched in size in recent years.
Inside Gaza mass mobilisation began in support of Jerusalem and Al Aqsa. Inevitably the Israeli government responded militarily but the resistance replied and refused to buckle. Completing this picture of a general Palestinian rising the refugee communities inside Jordan. and Lebanon organised mass actions. These included demonstrations at the borders with Israel and the West Bank.
Among the successful actions was a strike across the territory of mandatory Palestine – truly a remarkable example of unity and courage. The rising of 2021 shook the world. There were unprecedented divisions expressed inside US Congress with more criticism of Israel and support for the Palestinians expressed than ever before.
Around the world the solidarity movement with Palestine reached unprecedented levels. Inside the US and Europe major actions took place throughout May. The largest ever demonstrations in support of Palestine were recorded in a number of countries including the US and Britain.
In the Arab world there were the biggest actions. Literally millions came out on the streets of Yemen and Iraq while across the region there were many actions not so large despite normalisation in Bahrain, Morocco and Sudan against the regime’s sell out.
Inside Asia mass demonstrations occurred in most countries with huge demonstrations in Bangladesh, Pakistan, Kashmir, Indonesia and so on. Inside Latin America protests were small initially but there were mass actions in Chile, Columbia, Mexico, Brazil and Argentina. And inside Africa beyond the Arab north there were fewer protests but they grew in places like Nigeria. The largest actions were in South Africa where apartheid was best understood.
Let us not forget this extraordinary movement that the Palestinians created. It lies resting for now but cannot be eradicated.
So what are the chances for a new spring? Immediately we can see some similar conditions arising again. Despite the apparent stability the economic situation is extremely grave. According to the recent global economic outlook from the World Bank there will be a sharp deceleration of economic growth in 2023 to just 1.7 percent.
That outlook is the worst three decades apart from the recession of 2007 – 2009 and the pandemic of 2020. The bank warns of the real dangers of a global recession going into negative growth this year as governments tighten their economies to suppress inflation. For the Middle East and North Africa the World Bank reported an economic rebound to 5.7 percent growth in 2022 but they forecast there will be a slowdown to 3.5 percent in 2023.
But that is a regional average. The situation is greatly differentiated. The oil exporting countries are doing much better. Those countries having to import oil will face much more severe problems. Overall the report states about that the region is still characterised by widely divergent economic conditions in growth patterns, high levels of poverty and unemployment in many countries. Low labour productivity growth elevated vulnerabilities and fragile political and social contexts. Rising inflation has weighed on consumer spending which stagnated across the region in the first half of 2022. So the economy appears dangerous for the regimes.
Equally the stabilising role of the USA imperialism in the region continues to be in retreat. In pursuit of a policy of isolating Russia the Biden administration sought to persuade OPEC to increase oil production. OPEC refused. Even after personal pressure from Biden the Saudi regime refused to meet US demand to increase global production.
This stance appears to be endorsed by the local population. An opinion poll conducted by the Washington Institute in December 2022 inside Saudi Arabia shows public opinion support good relations with China by 57 percent, with Russia by 53 percent and with the US by only 41 percent.
Such a shift reflects the reality of changing economic relations in the multi polar world. According to the UN’s Arab monitor the top trade flows for Arab nations are first with China 15.2 percent, India 11.6 percent, Japan seven percent and the Republic of Korea 4.9 percent. The US is only fifth with just 4.1 percent. The future clearly lies looking east rather than west.
Finally the youth bulge in Arab society remains. Whether it is the young people on the streets of Bahrain or the Lions Den militias on the West Bank young people cannot be bypassed. These conditions show a new spring is not only possible. It is making its way towards us.
Ali Al Fayez: I think the main question that I have been invited to answer is is a second Arab spring inevitable. So to answer this question it will take us many weeks to discuss many aspects of that part of the world: the circumstances and the role of the super power. Are they genuinely advocating for democracy and human rights? Do people have faith in change? Does change happen without sacrifice. When we talk about change we talk about the community. We do not talk about individuals, a single person. Or a small family that will seek a change, adopt the change and adapt to that change. When we talk about community it is a mix of people, a mix of faith and background, ideology, behaviour, characteristics and so on.
So instead of going into details I would like to take this subject in a broader perspective and touch upon many questions and try to answer them and then open the stage for you guys to ask questions.
I was involved in politics since I was 16. I am now 46 years old. I was in jail when I was 19. I have been attacked when I was studying electrical engineering in the University of Bahrain. My scholarship was revoked. I was in jail for about a year. I have been tortured. I still have no idea what was my wrongdoing. What did I do for them to drag me to jail and revoke my scholarship. They put me not with the political prisoners. They put me with the criminals for about a year: murders, thieves, rapists and I now probably understand why they are doing that especially for a person of my age at that time. I was 19 years old.
I am not going to take much of your time but to answer this question: is a second Arab spring inevitable? We need to look at three main areas: understand people’s ideology and faith, current society , characteristics and the political and economic situation. The second one why change? The factors that play a role in this change and the current political situation.
In the Arab world to understand their ideology and faith we need to look at Islam, Christianity and Judaism. I didn’t have much time to look at Christianity and Judaism but I am going to talk about Islam which is likely to be similar because that in our faith comes from one source which is Allah.
So I am going to read some of the verses from the Quran that make people lead towards making change, invite people to sacrifice for change and ask people to change for the better. The first verse from Surat Al Qasas: that eternal home in the hereafter will be reserved only for those who seek neither tyranny nor corruption on earth. The ultimate outcome belongs only to the righteous.
The second verse says: if you have suffered injuries, like at Badr. We alternate these days of victory and defeat among people so that Allah may reveal the true believers chose martyrs from among you and Allah does not like the wrong doers.
Verse 3 if from Al Bakr. Had Allah not repelled a group of people by the might of another corruption would have dominated the earth but Allah is the gracious to all.
Al Haj: there are those who have been expelled from their homes for no reason other than proclaiming our road is Allah. Had Allah not returned the aggression of some people by means of others destruction would have surely claimed monasteries, churches, synagogues and mosques in which Allah’s name is often mentioned. Allah would certainly help those who have stood up for him. Allah is truly all powerful and almighty.
Allah promised those of you who believe and do good that he will certainly make them a successor in the land as he did with those before them. I will surely establish for them the fate which he has chosen for them and will change their fear into security provided that they worship me associating nothing with me. But whoever disbelieves after this promise it is they who will be the rebellious.
So in this society whether we are talking about Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Egypt, Saudi Bahrain, Syria, Lebanon in that part of the world. Whether we talk about Muslims or Christians, Jews and other faiths within them they know that they have to fight the wrong doers. Within them they have to know, they have to seek changes for them, for their children and for the after life.
Herculetz said the only constant in life is change. Change must happen. If we do not do our duty as believes, as freedom seekers, as people who look at dignity for everyone somebody will come and dominate and do the changes as per their interests, as per their project. So change has to happen and we must take the ownership and do our duty.
The factors of change are first of all the people. People must seek the change. People who are suffering must seek the change and this change is their sacrifice. People know this, people understand this and people are willing to pay the price for change. If they are not willing that means they give up their life for others. They are ready to be enslaved for by others. And for sure nobody wants to be enslaved. Allah created us free. He wanted us to be free, free people.
The second factor is the leadership. We have leaders almost in every country of the Arab work who are in jail just because they tried to lead the crowd for a better life. They tried to lead the crowd for a change that is the best for the community. Not best for those who are puppets for a super power.
The third thing is that we have to have a political project to activate and stage people. Struggle to achieve the security and stability to serve them. We have to convince those leaders, those who take the ownership of change, those who feel its their duty to go and seek change they have to have a project that convinces the people to follow, to sacrifice for that project. Is that project available? Yes. Are people convinced yes and that is why they chose to change each and every single leader and influencer because they do not want anyone to lead that change. They want to make the change as per their agenda. That is why they torture.
A few days ago Samir Al Rajab who was the ex information minister for the ruler of Bahrain came in a tv interview. She made a shocking statement. She admitted torture has been there for a long time and it has been established by the British government in Bahrain. She tried to put all the bad doings on the British government and whitewash the Al Khalifa regime from that torture. But she said loudly that this government is using all the means of torture with the help of the British government. That is what she said indirectly.
Number four to change you have to seek the change from one point to another point. You look for something different that is better for you, for your children and for your community. And unless the circumstances are bad, the circumstances are managed by somebody who does not seek change for the people to serve the people unless the people are not convinced that the change is must people are happy.
But today what we see is that the current rulers are putting all their efforts to manage people with fear, poverty and other means. So people will oppose them for sure. People would like to change them for sure. People want somebody to serve them for sure.
Do the politicians see constantly the required changes to serve the people and those people participate in those changes? Because it is not only about change. It is about putting everyone in the picture and asking everyone to participate. That is part of feeling free. That is part of feeling human. It is to participate and adapt to these changes or not.
Does the superpower advocate genuinely for democracy and human rights or do they use such slogans for their own interest. They play a major role in halting the changes and stopping revolutions. What was the super powers counter revolution role during the Arab spring?
Libya gave the green light to NATO to kill people in exchange for Saudi entering Bahrain across the causeway to kill us. That was their role. We see that using Syrians who seek the change to establish a war to destroy Syria instead of helping them to change peacefully.
Is there a chance to change? Of course there is. But those who have the chance, the power and the wealth, weapons, they use them for them for their own interests not to serve the people. That is what happened.
Has the political reconciliation to achieve the minimum level of the people to ensure long term stability and security. They have not done that. Instead they created institutions in Bahrain to cover up the torture and the torture still happens until today and we have many examples. So the British created many institutions in Bahrain to say there is change happening and they are covering the torturing so the camera does not take a photo of the torturing. Journalists do not have evidence of torture.
Until today they are moderating, managing and rooting the political turmoil based on their agenda. They are merely using the unrest based on ethnicity and sectariam and use many times military means just to make sure that in that part of the world there is always unrest. They want to keep the fear among the ruler as well as the people. They want rulers to obey their agenda and to make sure they work for them and people to fear the change.
And that is why we see Israel is coming into the picture because tyranny is a tool for imperialism. It is tool for the super power because those who stay and fear the change they obey their agenda. The give up the wealth of that part of the world to big companies whether they sell weapons or technology. But they want to make sure that they manage that part of the world.
Will the people revolt? I am sure they will. Have they successfully killed the first Arab Spring that happened in 2011? No, because the people still feel believe and they work for the change. That is what their belief pushes them to do and that is what will make their life better.
Dr Ibrahim Al Aradi described how he witnessed the attacks by the regime’s forces on the doctors and nurses during the uprising. During the uprising scores of doctors and nurses have been detained by the Bahraini authorities, which say that 47 of whom will soon face prosecution in a special military court. The allegations against them range from stealing blood so that protesters could fake serious injury to refusing to treat patients belonging to the Sunni minority, which rules the majority-Shia populated country.
“It’s very alarming to me what these fine physicians are up against and they include some of the country’s leading paediatricians, endocrinologists, and other specialists”, says Richard Sollom, deputy director of Physicians for Human Rights (PHR), who recently completed an investigation of violations in Bahrain. “It’s just a farce what is happening and it’s just ludicrous.”
Martial law was imposed in Bahrain on March 15, after weeks of demonstrations by mostly Shia protesters who were inspired by the successful revolutions in Egypt and Tunisia. Bahraini Shia have long claimed discrimination, including blocked access to key jobs in government and the security forces and they seek greater freedoms and representation.
At least 30 people have died, four activists sentenced to death, and hundreds of others detained, including medical professionals, teachers, lawyers, athletes, and opposition leaders.
Most of the casualties were treated at Salmaniya Medical Complex (SMC), the largest hospital in Bahrain, which at times became a battleground and protest site.
Researchers from Human Rights Watch were able to interview more than 75 medical professionals, patients and family members before leaving Bahrain on April 20. They have not been allowed to return.
Al Jazeera’s Charles Stratford, who reported from Bahrain in March and May, said the report was consistent with the events he witnessed and heard described during his time in the country, but that abuses had continued after March, when the report ends.
Trained medics and nurses became “undercover medics,” putting on plain clothes and using code words to get information from Shia towns where security forces conducted violent sweeps, Stratford said.
Many injured protesters refused to seek medical attention in clinics and hospitals for fear of being detained or beaten by security forces.
**Stephen Bell is a life-long unionist, human rights and political campaigner. He is currently Treasurer of Stop the War Coalition. He was Campaign Officer for Palestine Solidarity Campaign. He was also Head of Policy for Communication Workers Union 2002-2015. He is a also a member of Coventry North West Labour Party. He appears on TV screens for analysis and comments.
**Dr Ibrahim Al Aradi was born in Bahrain, studied at its primary and secondary schools before going to study abroad. In Ukraine he studied medicine graduating in 2005. He worked as a doctor at Bahrain’s hospitals until 2011. He witnessed the attacks by the regime’s forces on the doctors and nurses during the uprising. He then fled the country to Slovakia where he worked in Slovakia until 2013. His nationality was revoked in 2015. He is now working as a refugee doctor.
***Ali Al Fayez is a former political prisoner and victim of torture. He worked as a regional manager for Tickdata (US company working in the Gulf), commercial manager with Batelco and other local professions. He was a student in the nineties when he was dragged to jail for his political thought and activism.
