Analysis: Assad’s ouster has raised Libya’s importance for Russia’s foreign policy, with Moscow adapting to expand its strategic footprint.
On 18 December, US officials revealed that Russia was moving sophisticated weaponry from its military bases in Syria to facilities in eastern Libya.
Russia has reportedly transferred S-300 and S-400 air defence systems to Libya alongside approximately 1,000 military personnel.
These troops were drawn from the Fifth Corps and 25th Special Tanks Division, which supported Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad, and were transferred via Ilyushin aircraft to avoid the Black Sea.
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Analysis
Samuel Ramani
Russia’s transit of military assets from Syria to Libya reflects its commitment to creating an alternative logistical path for its African operations.
Moscow may not need to rely on this route, as its bases in Syria remain operational, but it serves as a valuable hedge against a breakdown in its relationship with the new Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)-led government.
Despite political risks associated with Libya’s still unsettled power balance, Russia is confident that a more robust military presence in the country will expand its long-term leverage.
A history of Russia’s military presence in Libya
While the recent enlargement of Russia’s military foothold in Libya is linked to Assad’s fall, it is essential to place this development into its broader historical and geopolitical context.
Since Russia agreed to cancel Libya’s $4.5 billion Cold War-era debt to Russia in April 2008, the Kremlin has eyed its Mediterranean coast as a strategically valuable base location. During his October 2008 visit to Russia, Colonel Muammar al-Gaddafi expressed interest in the development of a Russian naval base in Benghazi.
As Libya descended into political chaos after Gaddafi’s overthrow in 2011, Russia established the al-Kadim base east of Benghazi and al-Jufra facility near Libya’s Mediterranean coast. These facilities supported its Wagner Group-led military intervention on Libya National Army (LNA) strongman Khalifa Haftar’s behalf and served as logistical hubs for Russian military operations in Sudan and Mali.
While Russia drew down personnel and air defence systems from Syria after its full-scale invasion of Ukraine commenced in February 2022, its military presence in Libya was largely unaffected by wartime constraints.
