But today that political landscape in north Africa and the Middle East looks very different than it did four years ago.
Renowned scholar on Middle East politics and Islamic political thought Prof James Piscatori who is chair of the school of government and international affairs at Durham University, England, gives his take on the region and what has happened.
> Nobody talks about the Arab Spring anymore. Does this mean it is dead and a failure?
You are quite right. The Arab Spring seems to have disappeared from public consciousness. Calling it a failure is perhaps too strong, but it has not been a success either.
It has been unsuccessful in two ways:
(a) Authoritarian politics has been reaffirmed in the most important country of the region, Egypt, and in a number of Gulf countries, notably Bahrain.
(b) Other states have fallen into civil war or serious fragmentation – Syria, Libya, and Yemen for example. The only exception is Tunisia where democratic processes have unfolded and deepened. So, it is important to distinguish different patterns among the Arab countries.
> What has the Arab Spring “achieved”, if anything?
If the Arab Spring has achieved anything, it is that rulers and regimes can no longer take for granted a docile and apathetic public, especially among the young. The umara (rulers) may win in the short run, as they have, but they are put on notice of a longer-term challenge.
> The Arab world from Egypt, Syria and Libya to Yemen seem to be much more in a state of turmoil now than before the uprising with things spiralling out of control and radicals like ISIS/Islamic State (IS) emerging. Why and how has this happened?
The turmoil you point to is the result of a fragmentation among those who had opposed the ancient regime and old status quo. They agreed on the need to overthrow existing regimes, but not on what should follow it. In a general sense, society struck back against the state, but has not yet become a viable governing alternative; society opposed, but does not rule.
> Some point fingers at the West, saying they are behind the IS because they wanted to topple Bashar Assad in Syria and backed the fighters against him. They did the same with Muammar Gaddafi in Libya and the US led an invasion in Iraq to oust Saddam Hussein. They say it is in the interest of the West to keep the Arab world weak, in chaos, and have Muslims fight each other. What are your views on this?
The conspiracy view of the West’s hand behind current troubles is tempting, but simplistic. It is certainly the case that Western policy weakened the hands of strong rulers – Assad, Gaddafi, Saddam, as you say – but very unlikely that the intention was to keep those states weak.
Each had opposed Western policy in significant ways and was therefore considered an obstacle needing to be replaced.
The truth is that the US and its allies did not anticipate that a dangerous vacuum would be created that would be filled by ever more radical Islamist forces, such as ISIS. This was a major failure of Western policy – as was the longstanding hesitation to reach out to more moderate Islamist forces.
> Why are young Muslims seemingly attracted to ISIS/Islamic State (IS)?
ISIS offers a clear and uncomplicated ideology, which is that the West and its local allies, such as the Saudis, are working to undermine the ummah (the people) and to repress or kill Muslims throughout the world. (For them) the solution is simple – return to the Syariah in what they purport is its “original” form.
For Muslims who feel disenchanted, even victimised by their governments and helpless in the face of Western power, the appeal is very strong. This is true of Muslims in the West, in a minority situation, as well as majority Muslims.
> How have the IS militants and their brutality impacted on how Islam as a whole is being perceived by non-Muslims?
ISIS has done more to enhance Islamophobia than any Orientalists or bigots in the West have done. Their videos and propaganda have been very effective at searing in the minds of non-Muslims that Islam is deeply violent. It is a sad reality that fatwas and statements by ulama and other leaders denouncing ISIS have largely been ignored in the non-Muslim world. ISIS have captured the world’s imagination – and in so doing have perverted the message of Islam and strikingly damaged its image.
> How do you see the political arena in the Arab world unfolding over the next five to 10 years? And what kind of effect is it going to have on the rest of the world?
The immediate future looks grim. The Arab states are increasingly troubled by restive and rapidly growing populations, especially among youth, and intransigent regimes that are more concerned about their own survival than positive political and social change. Islamist oppositions that have worked within the system and participated in the elections are being doubly marginalised – by the arch conservative forces within and by authoritarian governments without. This is likely to leave the field open for more radical movements, which themselves are destined to fail but not before doing a great deal of harm.
