The Qatar Statistical Authority (QSA), which comes under the General Secretariat for Development Planning, made a revision of 11.27% in its 2007 gross domestic product at current prices to QR258.60bn ($ 71bn) from an earlier estimate of QR232.40bn ($ 63.85bn).
However, the revised figure still reflected a slowdown in the economy as the growth was much higher at 33.81% in 2006. But Qatar’s nominal GDP is higher than the International Monetary Fund’s estimate of $ 67.80bn in 2007.
The shrinkage in nominal economic growth, which is not adjusted for inflation (recorded at about 14% in 2007), comes as the average (WTI) oil price hit $ 72 per barrel in 2007 and Qatar budgeted for an oil price at $ 40 a barrel.
The QSA did not give a break up of the sectors in the revised estimate, which is still provisional and subject to change on the basis of new census, which is to be launched soon.
The country also witnessed fast rising prices in 2007 as its inflation averaged about 14% year-on-year due largely to surging rents, which prompted both Prime Minister HE Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim bin Jabor al-Thani and Finance Minister HE Yousef Hussein Kamal to announce that containing inflation was a priority for the government.
However, in the first quarter of this year, inflation spurted to a near record high of 14.75% mainly due to costlier food, along with higher rent, air fares, medical expenses and gold prices.
Forecasting that price levels may remain high in Qatar, the International Monetary Fund had said “containing inflation over the medium term calls for restraint in current expenditures and the phasing of development expenditures as part of a well-designed fiscal policy and for continuing efforts to address problems related to supply-side bottlenecks, especially housing shortages”.
The QSA in March forecast that the country’s nominal economy was set to witness 15.49% growth to QR268.49bn this year.
However, according to QNB, the growth is expected to be about 20% to QR294bn this year, underpinned by high energy prices and increasing export potential.
In its latest economic survey, QNB forecasts Qatar’s oil production to average around 840,000 barrels per day (bpd) in 2008. It estimates Qatari crude to fetch an average price of $ 75 per barrel this year.
“Qatar is fast moving and a new census is required to keep up with big changes on the ground,” said QSA acting president Sheikh Hamad bin Jabor al-Thani.
Qatar has more than 40,000 business establishments now compared with 30,000 at the time of last census in 2004, he said.
The new census, to be launched in a few weeks, would cover new estimate of Qatar’s gross domestic product, the QSA said.
“Our goal is to significantly improve the reliability of the national accounts. This will benefit policy formulation, improve transparency and provide a more solid basis on which the country can formulate strategies to serve the national vision,” QSA said.
