Originally posted to The Guardian website, 11 March 2020
State-owned Saudi Aramco told to pump 13m barrels a day in effort to corner global market
Saudi Arabia has intensified the oil price war by ordering its state-owned producer, Saudi Aramco, to raise the maximum production rate to record highs of 13m barrels a day.
The world’s most profitable company told the Saudi stock exchange on Wednesday that it would increase how much oil it can comfortably pump per day by 1m barrels to its highest rate ever.
The state order to raise Aramco’s “maximum sustainable capacity” comes after the kingdom launched a price war on rival petro-nations by vowing to raise its production by a quarter from last month despite an oil demand slowdown because of the coronavirus outbreak.
The Saudi government plans to raise its national oil production to an average of 12.3m barrels a day from next month, up sharply from less than 10m barrels in recent months, in an attempt to corner the global market.
Saudi Arabia, the world’s biggest oil exporter, is understood to be anxious to defend its market dominance against a rising tide of oil production in the US and Russia after talks to agree new limits on global production fell apart over the weekend.
Moscow refused to cooperate with an Opec plan to curtail oil production in line with a global demand slowdown, which is expected to wipe out forecasts for demand growth in 2020.
In response, the Saudis have offered discount rates to key buyers, in direct competition with Russia, which plans to raise its own production by 300,000 barrels a day.
The collapse of Opec’s talks with major producers outside the cartel, known as Opec+, marks an end to an almost four-year alliance established in the wake of the 2016 oil price crash to shore up market prices by limiting new supply into the market.
Russia’s energy minister, Alexander Novak, has not ruled out further talks with Opec to help stabilise the oil market. But both sides of the price standoff are adamant that they are prepared to weather a prolonged price rout.
Saudi Arabia has some of the lowest production costs in the world, meaning Aramco could withstand low prices far better than other big oil companies. However, the Saudi economy relies more heavily on oil revenues than most countries and reportedly requires prices of about $50-$60 (£38-£46) a barrel to support its state coffers.
In Russia, production costs are higher but its economy is more diverse and arguably more resilient to another oil market downturn.
The oil price war was ignited this week by the steepest price crash since 1991, which drove prices down to four-year lows of about $35 a barrel on Monday and sparked fears of an extended oil market downturn in 2020.
The price shock has wiped billions from the market value of oil companies this week, forcing down the share price of big firms including Shell and BP by about 20%, and raising concern over their dividends.
Analysts at Rystad Energy have warned that oil prices in the $30 territory could spell trouble for oilfield service companies too as big producers cut their spending on new projects. This spending could fall by $100bn in 2020 and a further $150bn next year, Rystad said.
The geopolitical spat has also compounded fears of a global economic slowdown, which accelerated this year after the outbreak of the Covid-19 virus.
Link to the original post : https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/11/saudi-arabia-oil-price-war-production-increase-aramco
