Analysis: The Syrian opposition is preparing for a post-Assad future, but fundamental challenges to a roadmap of democracy and civil liberties remain.
In the coming months, opposition figures will fly into Damascus to prepare for what is hoped will be the awakening of a new democratic dawn in Syria.
After sweeping into the capital to become Syria’s dominant political and military force a fortnight ago, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) are the de facto rulers of Syria’s transitional government that is filled with members of Ahmad Al-Sharaa’s ‘Idlib set’, mostly Islamist conservatives, while liberal opposition figures wait on the sidelines.
The mystery for all Syrians, except maybe Al-Sharaa, is what comes next and whether HTS after four months of being Syria’s sole authority will hand over power to a multi-party system or opt for a form of Islamic democracy, something that would go against the dreams and aspirations of many Syrians in this politically and demographically diverse nation.
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While Al-Sharaa has the keys to the presidential palace, activists and opposition politicians in exile have also been preparing for this moment, jotting out theoretical exercises on what post-Assad governance might look like, taking part in constitutional talks and figuring out what role their parties will have in Syria’s new age.
The fear among some is that Syrians after decades of suffocating poverty, dysfunctional government, and the irreligious tendencies of the former regime might tolerate a softer form of authoritarian rule so long as their salaries are paid, security is restored, and lights remain on in their homes. Since the 2011 Arab Spring, there have been many examples of democratic transitions going tragically wrong.
Dima Moussa, vice-president of the Syrian National Coalition has faith that Syrians will not squander this once-in-a-lifetime opportunity and believes the opposition must show Syrians how they can improve their lives and cooperate with different actors to ensure political stability.
“It is too early to say whether or not they [HTS] are going to try and dominate or monopolise power, as they should be well aware Syrians do not want tyranny in any form,” Moussa told The New Arab.
“There’s space and a place for everyone to be included, which cannot happen unless we cooperate to ensure we achieve a Syria that is democratic, pluralistic, and a place where citizens live with dignity and equal rights.”
Such ideals were the calling card of the revolution, one that many of the martyrs of Saydnaya prison paid the ultimate price for. Their chants for freedom and liberty filled the streets of Damascus, even when Assad tried to drown out the cries with the barrel of a gun, and secular songs and chants were steadily replaced with the nasheeds and takbirs of Islamist groups.
Syrian politicians were forced overseas following a harrowing crackdown by regime forces and the insecurity in rebel areas, but even in exile, they remained in close contact with members, activists, and community leaders on the ground in Syria.
“While I’ve been outside, all our work has been greatly based on the presence of many of the members of the Syrian National Coalition inside Syria and our contacts within the various communities,” said Moussa.
 Syrian activists and opposition politicians in exile have been preparing for this moment for a long time. [Getty] |
“During the last few years, we have worked on a lot of matters relating to the transitional period and post-transition by tackling constitutional issues and considering the required legal frame for conducting fair and free elections, for example.”
The technocratic and political experiences of the Syrian opposition could be important assets for Al-Sharaa, not only to help rebuild Syria but also to establish a pluralistic environment needed to maintain stability, growth, and investment.
After all the skills and insights gained by Syrians in exile, Ayman Abdel Nour, a political Syrian American figure who has worked on political transparency and governance issues with Syrians, believes the next challenge will be to put these ideas and experiences into practice.
“It was not easy creating a political space for people who have only met online, with different ideologies, ideas, cultures they were living in, and even time differences, but the cooperation was always good,” Abdel Nour told The New Arab.
“Some of these groups will continue, some will be re-established, some will join existing parties, so we will see how that will develop. But the past 13 years have been good for Syrians to practice free thinking and network with others who have different ideas, so they will take all these experiences with them to Syria and create a new political atmosphere in the country.”
He said democracy must be a Syrian initiative and not an imported product, but after five decades of autocratic rule, it will take time – maybe a year or two – to build the political framework and physical infrastructure needed to hold multi-party elections.
This transition period will require the vigilance of Syrians to prevent a slide into authoritarianism, again, and the establishment of new laws on creating political parties, civil society, and a free press.
“After all the sacrifices and blood lost to be free of the Assad regime, it would not be easy for any actor to establish another authoritarian regime,” he said.
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“The speed of the democratic changes will depend on the people, and how much they can work together. There will be a lot more engagement from the people, the government will have to be inclusive of different religious and ethnic groups; this is what we hope will happen, and we will keep pressuring the new government to achieve this.”
One of the parties hoping to take their place in Syria’s political scene is Bassam Al-Kuwatli’s Syrian Liberal Party, which he says is the first Syrian political party to promote social liberal ideas.
Its focus on individual freedoms has set itself apart from more established national, socialist, and Islamist movements – an idea that many Syrians are hungry for after decades of stifling totalitarian and ideological government.
“Looking at the Egyptian experience, we saw that when the regime falls you have nobody there ready, so maybe it’s time to start early,” Kuwatli told The New Arab.
“We swam against the current because many people said we should wait for the regime to fall before establishing a party, but we benefited from starting early because we are known among the political groups, we have a vision of what we want to do, and we positioned ourselves internationally, through different liberal networks across the world, which took years of building but means we have some support around us.”
Now with the Assad regime’s fall and the period of transition, he says the Syrian Liberal Party is well poised to build on the achievements of Syrian civil society, probably one of the most developed in the Arab world, which will be returning to Syria after years working in Turkey, Lebanon, Jordan and elsewhere.
Having worked in civil society himself, Kuwatli is aware of the importance this space will play in the new age in Syria but also sees their relevance in the political sphere.
“Often reactionary forces pray on frustrated populations who don’t get what they need, so civil society will play a big role in this… and in providing support and pressure [in politics],” he said.
 Opposition figures hope Assad’s fall will be the awakening of a new democratic dawn in Syria. [Getty] |
“There are other advantages to civil society – one, we have a lot of documentation of the issues that we need to deal with in Syria, so we don’t need to create everything from scratch. Two, we have a lot of people who know how to advocate, mobilise people, and work together, and three, you have people who know how to deal with the international community.
“So we have groups of people ready to help with reconstruction, rebuilding, and providing basic needs, so civil society should not be ignored or underestimated.”
The Syrian Liberal Party’s vision for a decentralised political model also offers a way to bridge the differences, empower citizens, and deal with the competing demands of various political, religious, and ethnic groups without fragmentation of the state, particularly with fears that regional and local powers might exploit these cleavages.
“Syrians feel they don’t trust politicians and politics, and I understand that fully. The regime represented itself as secular so that put a lot of people off secularism, it was used as an anti-religious or anti-Islamism tool, which is not how it is supposed to be, while others suffered under Islamists,” he said.
“Depending on the population, where they lived in Syria, their experiences, everything can be tainted, the issue here is to show a different example. People don’t trust talk, they want to see how you operate on the ground and how you deal not only with their material needs, but also their self-respect, their ability to realise themselves, and to live freely.”
Paul McLoughlin is the Head of News at The New Arab
