How Arab states are setting a red line over Trump’s Gaza expulsion plans

US President Donald Trump’s repeated remarks about the US taking over Gaza for reconstruction and expelling Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan have shocked Arab states.

The brazen proposal was made during Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s visit to Washington last week when he said the US could take ownership of Gaza and redevelop it into the “Riviera of the Middle East”, resettling Palestinians in regional states.

Since Netanyahu’s visit, he has doubled down on his remarks, on Monday saying he is committed to “buying and owning” Gaza and ramping up pressure on Jordan and Egypt, including with the threat of financial sanctions.

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The response by Arab states has been swift. Both Egypt and Jordan have firmly rejected the proposal, while major Gulf countries, including Saudi Arabia, as well as the Arab League, have reaffirmed their stance against the displacement of Palestinians.

Saudi Arabia has continued to reiterate that it would only establish diplomatic ties with Israel if there was a pathway to a Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital, pouring cold water on normalisation.

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Riyadh also firmly rejected Netanyahu’s recent comments that a Palestinian state could be created in Saudi Arabia, condemning Israel’s occupation and “ethnic cleansing” in Gaza.

In response to growing regional anxieties about Trump’s proposals, Egypt announced over the weekend that it would host a summit of Arab leaders on 27 February.

While firmly rejecting plans to annex land and displace Palestinians, Jordan now faces a tense showdown with Trump on Tuesday at the White House, where King Abdullah will want to reinforce the Kingdom’s red lines, aware of its dependence on US aid and security assistance.

Amid these anxieties, the future of the Gaza ceasefire also looks increasingly uncertain after Hamas delayed the handover of captives scheduled for Saturday due to Israeli violations of the deal.

Trump responded by saying if the captives are not returned by noon on Saturday the ceasefire may be cancelled and “all hell” could break loose.

Paul Salem, vice president for international engagement at the Middle East Institute, told The New Arab that neither Amman nor Cairo can afford to pursue Trump’s plan politically.

“If the Jordanian King were to agree to ethnic cleansing in Gaza, he would fall. If Abdel Fattah al-Sisi agreed to facilitate ethnic cleansing in Gaza, he would not survive,” he said. 

Trump’s repeated remarks about the US taking over Gaza for reconstruction and expelling Palestinians to Egypt and Jordan have shocked Arab states. [Getty]

The sensitivity surrounding Palestinian expulsion has deep historical roots, centred around the Nakba (“catastrophe” in Arabic) of 1948 when around 750,000 Palestinians were forcibly displaced during Israel’s creation.

Many sought refuge in Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, and smaller numbers in Egypt and other Arab countries, destabilising the region.

Today, Arab states fear that a similar event could cause further upheaval, with Trump’s push to resettle over two million Palestinians from Gaza in Jordan and Egypt seen as a threat to regional stability.

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Salem explained that Egypt and Jordan would prefer economic sanctions over political collapse if such a scenario materialised. By opposing Trump’s plan, they could gain domestic support and secure economic aid from Gulf countries if sanctions were imposed.

Egypt and Jordan rely heavily on US economic support. Since 1978, the US has given Egypt over $50 billion in military and $30 billion in economic aid, while Jordan has received over $1 billion annually in recent years, according to US Department of State data.

Experts suggest Egypt and Jordan have limited room to manoeuvre diplomatically. While they may try to de-escalate bilaterally with the US, it seems they have already set a red line: they will not accept the displacement of Palestinians.

Sanam Vakil, Director of the Middle East and North Africa Programme at Chatham House, told TNA that Trump’s remarks have sparked widespread concern in Arab capitals, who view the plan as a push for ethnic cleansing.

“But at the same time, we’ve also seen greater Arab unity in response to show that this is a red line for Arab states,” she said.

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The visit by King Abdullah II on Tuesday, followed by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi’s trip on 18 February, comes at a critical time given the status of the fragile Gaza ceasefire and the future of the territory.

Andreas Krieg, a senior lecturer at King’s College London’s School of Security Studies, told TNA that Trump’s Gaza plan is nonsensical and lacks a clear strategy.

“It’s an opening gambit to set the parameters of negotiations. I think the narrative itself is coercive, and it’s meant to send a very strong message to the Arab world to come up with a constructive solution not just for reconstruction but also for the governance of Gaza,” he said. “I believe this is something Trump is quite desperate to achieve, and he feels his partners in the region are not pulling their weight.”

Some Arab states have proposed reinstating the Palestinian Authority (PA) in Gaza, possibly alongside local governance bodies, to support a two-state solution.

However, there are disagreements over which model to pursue, with some backing a reformed PA and others favouring a technocratic government. The role of Hamas remains unclear, as it has not been destroyed despite Israel’s intensive 15-month military campaign and still maintains a presence in the Gaza Strip.

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While no concrete plan has emerged, the US is putting pressure on regional states to take charge of Gaza’s governance and reconstruction.

“What Trump is looking for is greater Arab support in what comes next in Gaza and across the conflict. He probably needs more dedicated Arab commitments to reconstruction and security,” Vakil said.

Trump’s Gaza expulsion plan also raises questions about US efforts to normalise relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia, a key goal from his first term, which has since stalled.

Palestinian returnee to north Gaza [Getty]Palestinians returned to their homes in northern Gaza following the ceasefire deal to end Israel’s 15-month war, labelled a genocide by rights groups and legal experts. [Getty]

Saudi Arabia has made an independent Palestinian state with East Jerusalem as its capital a condition for normalisation, which Israel has rejected.

However, according to Vakil, if pressured, Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries may moderate their stance over a Palestinian state to avert Trump’s proposal on Gaza.

Krieg further explained that the Saudis and Gulf countries understand that Trump cares about public wins and are willing to give him something to claim as a victory, even if it’s not realistic.

While they are firm on their terms, “the Saudis would be willing to accept to normalise with Israel without a clear mandated date. But it has to be something very close to a Palestinian state,” he said.

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While it’s unclear if Trump’s Gaza proposal is a negotiating tool, like his tactic with tariffs on Canada and Mexico and acquiring Greenland, Salem notes that Trump’s remarks on Gaza don’t align with his public position on reducing US involvement in the Middle East, and some Republican lawmakers have already rejected the idea.

“I don’t think he will pursue it very vigorously in the form that he said. His attempts to pressure Jordan and Egypt to agree will not succeed,” he said.

“People will be waiting to see what he announces on the West Bank because that will tell us a lot about the general direction he’s going in.”

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While Egypt and Jordan will oppose the proposal and make their stance on Palestinian expulsion clear, Krieg argues that someone must take action, as no one wants to own the problem of how to rebuild Gaza.

“Israel doesn’t want to own the problem, and Egypt and Jordan are waiting for the Gulf to take the initiative because they’re the ones who will have to pay for it. The Gulf countries were waiting on Trump’s decision, but his recent statement has forced everyone to shift into action,” he said.

“For the last six months, most Arab countries have been passive, but now they have to do something about it.”

Dario Sabaghi is a freelance journalist interested in human rights